Real Time e-mini S&P Trading, plus contrarian commentary on all the markets, all the time
Friday, October 03, 2008
E-mini Update
The fact that the market couldn't hold above the 1140 level after hitting 1161 means that we shall probably see it trade at 1090 early next week. I think that will prove to be a good buy spot for a rally to 1200 and eventually higher.
31 comments:
Anonymous
said...
You are such a CLOWN that its not even funny anymore... The world economy is in BIG trouble and you think the market will rally?
Nobody cares about this Bailout BS bill, the world is coming to an END!!!
Its so funny to see you post the market will go to 1600 about 2 weeks ago and then 1500 about a week ago then 1400 about 2days ago then 1300 a day ago and now 1200!
A month from now you will be posting the market will go to 1000, because we are heading to 850!
WE ARE IN A BEAR MARKET AND THE WORLD IS IN A MAJOR RECESSION... USA IS THE MOST CORRUPT COUNTRY!!!
Carl Futia is right! The stock market is going above 1600 and interest rates are headed a lot lower. This combined with the mega bailout will cause another bull market and a housing bubble. Buy everything now or you will miss the biggest rally of your lifetime!
carl if im right aout all of this and i have been wrong in many ways in regards to the bull mkt . then the cycle low due oct 14th 17th will be a bottom which should be held . the old adage of buy yom kippur would imply buying oct 8th yet there are now several cycles bottoming in that time frame . 1070-1050 on the cash spx is where i am personally focusing on . the oex apears to be holding up better then the spx , this is a slight bullish divergence the transports also are showing bullish divergence . the recent news event failing to bounce the market is somewhat constructive because in doing so it is keeping the shorter term cycle in tac joe
I have been reading you blog for almost a year. You have been wrong for a full year calling for an eventual move to new highs. When will you admit you were wrong? Are we going to read the same thing for the next 6 months if we continue to move lower. The markets have now moved 30 plus percent from the all time highs and you have yet to acknowledge a change in trend from up to down. While you site magazine covers as contrary indicators, what you fail to recognize is that we are at last at the stage of recognition. The magazine covers should be negative for years. Of course we will have rallies along the way. They will most probably be great opportunities to sell into. The trend is down and has been for a year. Yet you don't acknowlege it. There will be a time to buy and we might be approaching a nice multi month rally sometime this month. Should that occur I am sure you will claim you were right even if the rally starts from below 1000 on the S&P. You have been consistanly wrong for the last year. I would appreciate an answer. You owe it to all of your readers.
I think the helicopter might arrive monday with coordinated rate cuts. This market has gotten to the point where we are staring into the abyss and the Fed is now scared. What makes this market crash different is that it is a banking crisis which means all the wealthier bankers (like me), will not buy in size when stocks crater because if we are wrong, its a double whammy - we lose money on the trade and we lose our jobs + bonuses. This is very different from the non-banking market crashes where wealthy bankers will often view their market losses as hedged by their year end bonuses. CF
Greetings, I too am a wealthy banker. I accumulated my wealth through years of reading blogs and leaving anonymous comments. You may be familiar with my book "How I Made A Fortune Walking My Dog". All this scary talk we're getting pumped with right now is overstated or just plain stupid. These times are when fortunes are made.
I see what you're doing. Keep calling those bottom and eventually you'll get it. Yes, eventually you'll be right but how many time will you be wrong before getting it right?
You have been calling market bottoms for the past 6 months and all the market has done is make new lows! Anyone can sit here and make idiotic calls like you have for the past year or so, and then eventually we will have your Bull Market!
Fortunes are made when you can call a bottom or very close to one, and then have yourself a 10 bagger! All this idiotic posting you do everyday about new highs 1600 and all that garbage, is just hogwash...
One thing I can tell you is wherever the bottomw is, say 1000 or 850, the market will double on the next Bull Market... It may take 5yrs or so, but if this is bottome 1100, I would not see the next Bull Market having the S&P run upto 1800-2000! But that is a long time from now...
Here's a link to a selection from 30 years of Times magazine covers which states what would have happened to your money 10 years after investing at the time of impending doom. Enjoy!!
I'm reading such things as: A call for major European banks to fail this weekend. 1500-2000 point DOW decline in first 4 days of next week. A call for an "historical crash" next week.
this next leg down next week should prove to be a an inflaction point where the bears take full 200percent bearish positions and they will also be fully convinced only to see there money evaporate the odds now favor a bull market about to begin . there is no historical presitant now to convince me this market will do anything more then capulate down and reverse back to the upside strongly . good luck to all who bash this board . if you had read carls work instead of his day to day blog you would have seen what his work told him that he mis interpretated joe
Worst. Advice. Ever. Yale and Berkeley should revoke your licence to blather. Feckless blog bloviators like yourself are pathetic. You have been dead wrong for months and months, but somehow you think that, hey, nobody remembers what I said yesterday - one day I'll look like a genius! I'm dumbfounded that you still have sufficient assets to pay your web host - you must not follow your own advice.
Dear Carl you are not a fool, calling a guy with a such a Ph.D a fool is indeed foolish. But you are simply a novice trader. Your golds, crude, euro calls were a miss for months and finally they reversed their trends and you nailed them. Same will happen with the index. Just like Mr. Precter who has been calling for a deflation for years and years ,finally he got it. He makes money?You bet,but not by trading.Tim Knight is a bear he made money, you are a bull and never used the chance to change your stance you lose money. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. Regards Jess
My opinion is that when Carl finally says that "market is going lower", then that moment will mark the turning point and this will be buy excellent occasion to buy.
Hope I am not insulting you - I am just being contrarian to your opinion and it seems to be working ok. (but since I don't like to play short, similar to you, I am just out of the market, waiting for chance to get in)
On the other hand ppl should not be insulting anyone just because of his opinion. If you think that Carl is wrong, just play against him, or make your own blog and show what you can do - and stop your childish squabble.
Carl,just send you a link,but something went wrong,so here some words.Just like you I am fascinated by the markets and busy to find my way and method.Since 2 months I present two concepts and it is really amazing how fast people find the site -about 7000 hits per month at this moment-I follow you daily and really love it,simple because I am curious:what about Carl's perception of the market and its noise,not about good or wrong,thats too simple.Thanks for your work and although I think of you as an independent mind I want to say: keep on the good work.Fred.The Netherlands.
I show a low on the S&P of 1077 for a 61% retrace of fibs... If we go below this level then we are in serious trouble... I dont know what you see on 1090, but maybe some other indicator that you watch... I would say that you are a trader if you were saying to go short this market 6mths ago and just now you changed direction... But its like anything else if you keep saying for a year we are heading higher eventually it will happen!
The market is going through a tough time right now due to the mortgage crisis— and I think depending on the outcome, the market could go down a LOT more than it already has. So I think its risky to invest based on these trading trends, which I think don't take into account the larger economic trends.
I'm heavily in cash and don't see much of a reason to buy, but with all the taunting by bears on this thread, I'm starting to think I'm missing something bullish.
I'm SOOO tired of people spitefully yelling at Carl. This is a free blog, take or leave the advice, but don't blame Carl for your results; he is not forcing you to come to this site, so STFU.
This is the best selling title in investing->introduction section at amazon. 10\5\2008 I use that section as my sentiment index. If the herd buys that book,means they agree to the title and the herd ia always wrong. Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (Lynn Sonberg Books) by Peter D. Schiff (Author), John Downes (Author)
31 comments:
You are such a CLOWN that its not even funny anymore... The world economy is in BIG trouble and you think the market will rally?
Nobody cares about this Bailout BS bill, the world is coming to an END!!!
Its so funny to see you post the market will go to 1600 about 2 weeks ago and then 1500 about a week ago then 1400 about 2days ago then 1300 a day ago and now 1200!
A month from now you will be posting the market will go to 1000, because we are heading to 850!
WE ARE IN A BEAR MARKET AND THE WORLD IS IN A MAJOR RECESSION... USA IS THE MOST CORRUPT COUNTRY!!!
ex
Potential low at 1112- completed EW counts for SP and NQ - long at 1114 with wide stop - close above 1136 should seal a low.
Carl Futia is right! The stock market is going above 1600 and interest rates are headed a lot lower. This combined with the mega bailout will cause another bull market and a housing bubble. Buy everything now or you will miss the biggest rally of your lifetime!
carl
if im right aout all of this and
i have been wrong in many ways in regards to the bull mkt . then
the cycle low due oct 14th 17th
will be a bottom which should be held . the old adage of buy yom kippur would imply buying oct 8th
yet there are now several cycles
bottoming in that time frame .
1070-1050 on the cash spx is where i am personally focusing on .
the oex apears to be holding up better then the spx , this is a slight bullish divergence the transports also are showing bullish divergence . the recent news event failing to bounce the market is somewhat constructive
because in doing so it is keeping the shorter term cycle in tac
joe
Carl,
I have been reading you blog for almost a year. You have been wrong for a full year calling for an eventual move to new highs. When will you admit you were wrong?
Are we going to read the same thing for the next 6 months if we continue to move lower. The markets have now moved 30 plus percent from the all time highs and you have yet to acknowledge
a change in trend from up to down.
While you site magazine covers as contrary indicators, what you fail to recognize is that we are at last at the stage of recognition. The magazine covers should be negative for years. Of course we will have rallies along the way. They will most probably be great opportunities to sell into. The trend is down and has been for a year. Yet you don't acknowlege it.
There will be a time to buy and we might be approaching a nice multi month rally sometime this month. Should that occur I am sure you will claim you were right even if the rally starts from below 1000 on the S&P. You have been consistanly wrong for the last year. I would appreciate an answer.
You owe it to all of your readers.
I think the helicopter might arrive monday with coordinated rate cuts. This market has gotten to the point where we are staring into the abyss and the Fed is now scared. What makes this market crash different is that it is a banking crisis which means all the wealthier bankers (like me), will not buy in size when stocks crater because if we are wrong, its a double whammy - we lose money on the trade and we lose our jobs + bonuses. This is very different from the non-banking market crashes where wealthy bankers will often view their market losses as hedged by their year end bonuses. CF
Greetings, I too am a wealthy banker. I accumulated my wealth through years of reading blogs and leaving anonymous comments. You may be familiar with my book "How I Made A Fortune Walking My Dog". All this scary talk we're getting pumped with right now is overstated or just plain stupid. These times are when fortunes are made.
I see what you're doing.
Keep calling those bottom and eventually you'll get it. Yes, eventually you'll be right but how many time will you be wrong before getting it right?
I lost count after your 15th try.
Carl,
You have been calling market bottoms for the past 6 months and all the market has done is make new lows! Anyone can sit here and make idiotic calls like you have for the past year or so, and then eventually we will have your Bull Market!
Fortunes are made when you can call a bottom or very close to one, and then have yourself a 10 bagger! All this idiotic posting you do everyday about new highs 1600 and all that garbage, is just hogwash...
One thing I can tell you is wherever the bottomw is, say 1000 or 850, the market will double on the next Bull Market... It may take 5yrs or so, but if this is bottome 1100, I would not see the next Bull Market having the S&P run upto 1800-2000! But that is a long time from now...
You remind me of those CLOWNS on CNBC
SLIP, These times are also when fortunes are lost.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_WwQKrSDoXVU/SOJKR5plhTI/AAAAAAAAA8I/wJ45Hfivooo/s1600-h/untitled.bmp
Carl,
I found this on a blog and dont know if you can open this, but this is a great collection to your magazine covers...
The new US dollar.
extrader
Carl,
Here's a link to a selection from 30 years of Times magazine covers which states what would have happened to your money 10 years after investing at the time of impending doom. Enjoy!!
http://www.tenstar.eric-harrison.com/uploads/fileman/files/Time_DOW.pdf
Clint
Carl,
I'm reading such things as: A call for major European banks to fail this weekend. 1500-2000 point DOW decline in first 4 days of next week. A call for an "historical crash" next week.
P.S. Each of these new lows is accompagnied by more bullish divergence in the McClellan osc., and RSI and others.
Why don't you try shorting the market...you may start to make a buck or two.....pity
this next leg down next week should prove to be a an inflaction point where the bears take full 200percent bearish positions and they will also be fully convinced only to see there money evaporate the odds now favor a bull market about to begin . there is no historical
presitant now to convince me this market will do anything more then capulate down and reverse back to the upside strongly .
good luck to all who bash this board . if you had read carls work instead of his day to day blog
you would have seen what his work told him that he mis interpretated
joe
Worst. Advice. Ever. Yale and Berkeley should revoke your licence to blather. Feckless blog bloviators like yourself are pathetic. You have been dead wrong for months and months, but somehow you think that, hey, nobody remembers what I said yesterday - one day I'll look like a genius! I'm dumbfounded that you still have sufficient assets to pay your web host - you must not follow your own advice.
CARL,
YOU HAVE BEEN WRONG FOR ALMOST 1 YEAR!
ARE YOU SURE YOU ARE FOLLOWING THE SAME US MARKETS THAT WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING???
Dear Carl you are not a fool, calling a guy with a such a Ph.D a fool is indeed foolish. But you are simply a novice trader. Your golds, crude, euro calls were a miss for months and finally they reversed their trends and you nailed them. Same will happen with the index. Just like Mr. Precter who has been calling for a deflation for years and years ,finally he got it. He makes money?You bet,but not by trading.Tim Knight is a bear he made money, you are a bull and never used the chance to change your stance you lose money. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. Regards
Jess
I like this blog because of often posting.
My opinion is that when Carl finally says that "market is going lower", then that moment will mark the turning point and this will be buy excellent occasion to buy.
Hope I am not insulting you - I am just being contrarian to your opinion and it seems to be working ok. (but since I don't like to play short, similar to you, I am just out of the market, waiting for chance to get in)
On the other hand ppl should not be insulting anyone just because of his opinion. If you think that Carl is wrong, just play against him, or make your own blog and show what you can do - and stop your childish squabble.
Carl,just send you a link,but something went wrong,so here some words.Just like you I am fascinated by the markets and busy to find my way and method.Since 2 months I present two concepts and it is really amazing how fast people find the site -about 7000 hits per month at this moment-I follow you daily and really love it,simple because I am curious:what about Carl's perception of the market and its noise,not about good or wrong,thats too simple.Thanks for your work and although I think of you as an independent mind I want to say: keep on the good work.Fred.The Netherlands.
http://fredwilhelmus.googlepages.com/traders'crossover
Carl,
I show a low on the S&P of 1077 for a 61% retrace of fibs... If we go below this level then we are in serious trouble... I dont know what you see on 1090, but maybe some other indicator that you watch... I would say that you are a trader if you were saying to go short this market 6mths ago and just now you changed direction... But its like anything else if you keep saying for a year we are heading higher eventually it will happen!
extrader
Hi Carl,
we are almost at crunch point now, excuse the intended pun!! price wise, my spx map looks like this:
1. down to 1065 area next week
2. bounce up to near 1300
3. down to 926 for the bottom of this bear market
If we ignore timing, we are within 170 pts of a bottom and never has it been a better time to buy back into equities.
The market is going through a tough time right now due to the mortgage crisis— and I think depending on the outcome, the market could go down a LOT more than it already has. So I think its risky to invest based on these trading trends, which I think don't take into account the larger economic trends.
I'm heavily in cash and don't see much of a reason to buy, but with all the taunting by bears on this thread, I'm starting to think I'm missing something bullish.
October is known as the bear killer.
10 year and 20 year cycles are also bullish into 2009.
New highs into 2009-2010 as Jupiter conjoins Uranus
VERY VERY BULLISH
Back to basics Carl..... Elliott wave principal..... Wave 3 of 3 of 3 Down??? See allallen.blogspot.com
I'm SOOO tired of people spitefully yelling at Carl. This is a free blog, take or leave the advice, but don't blame Carl for your results; he is not forcing you to come to this site, so STFU.
Sheesh. What a bunch of whiners.
This is the best selling title in investing->introduction section at amazon. 10\5\2008 I use that section as my sentiment index.
If the herd buys that book,means they agree to the title and the herd ia always wrong.
Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (Lynn Sonberg Books)
by Peter D. Schiff (Author), John Downes (Author)
not significant reaction before 950 level ...
Dimitris Athens
Post a Comment