Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Guesstimates on October 14, 2008

Spiders - September S&P  E-mini Futures:  The e-minis have nearly reached the 1060 target. The next big move will be downward to 900 or so. I think there is a good chance that the 837 low will hold for quite a while, but even if it doesn’t the 810 level probably will. 

QQQ: The 37.50 level looks like pretty strong resistance.  From there a drop to 31 is likely. 

TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower. 

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are now headed for the 110-111 zone. 

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro should rally back to 139 or so. 

Dollar-Yen: My revised 99.00 target has been reached. I think this market will stabilize and the yen will soon begin a big rally. Short term resistance is now at 104.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – November Crude: Downside target at 75 was nearly reached Friday. I expect crude oil to begin stabilizing but 75 is still likely soon. Resistance above the market is now at 88.00.   

GLD - December Gold: Gold still has resistance at 935.  I think gold will soon drop to 600. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance is at 1390. Next downside target is 900.   

Google: Google has rallied past 380 but I think 405 is likely to be the top of this swing. Next move will be downward to 330 or so.  

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Carl, you are wrong this market gonna fly! 1100 is the first resistance.

Larry said...

Carl,

You have been calling for gold to drop to 600 for quite some time. What is not clear is your ultimate expections for the price of gold. Does your forecast call for gold to break above it all-time highs once the 600 level is reached, or do you see gold prices continuing to be depressed below the 1020-1030 level?

Thanks,
Larry Primas

rcks said...

Carl
We won't see 900 until next week.
This is expiration week. We may test 1000-1020 this am after we tag 1065 but we are going higher all week.

Anonymous said...

G'Morning Carl

Went back to all cash yesterday near 9000 when it was up 700 points, thus leaving 800 points n the table.

Considering going short now and wondering why you never short?

Can anyone tell me the shares to buy opposite of SSO and DDM?

thanks,

Rob

Anonymous said...

Here is a list of ultra short etf http://tradermike.net/2007/03/list_of_inverse_short_bear_etfs_/

LJW

Anonymous said...

I see 1250 being the top end of this leg of rebound (S&P500 got as high as 1250 the morning after the original $700bn plan were mentioned on 18 Sep)+ bodes well for the year end rally. After that the realities of the recession will bite and should see S&P heading back to test the low we had last week (in early months of 2009)

Anonymous said...

Carl, me think this market might consolidating before going up to 1100 the first resistance.

Rob, I recall Carl shorted before right Carl?

Anonymous said...

SDS and DXD