Monday, October 06, 2008

Guesstimates on October 6, 2008

Spiders - September S&P  E-mini Futures:  The e-minis have traded for most of this morning below the 1090 level so I think the market will drop into the 1060-65 zone. From there a rally of 100-150 points is likely to start. I think this market is very near its final bear market low. 

QQQ: The Q’s should find strong support near 35 and then rally to 42.    

TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower. 

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are now headed for the 110-111 zone. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is now at 149.40. 

Dollar-Yen: Resistance is at 108.50 and I think the market is headed for 98.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – November Crude: Next downside target is 75.   

GLD - December Gold: Gold still has resistance at 935.  I think gold will soon drop to 600. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance is at 1390. Next downside target is 900.   

Google: I think Google will make a low near 375 and then begin another multi-year bullish trend. 

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Carl,

You have FINALLY realized that this market is not going anywhere near the 1300 level and today have posted a 150pt advance in the S&P which would bring us to the 1130 level!

I would just like for you to admit to all your follower on this blog that you were wrong and the S&P will not go up to 1600, instead will go down to 1000!

extrader

Anonymous said...

Trading is not easy. Most traders just let the market do its thing. The correct way is that you do your thing and control your positioning. You control you positions by using rules, which keep you in the game. Rule 1 is the most important rule in any trade plan. Rule 2 will be the other side of the coin, which must be dealt with if you are expecting to remain in the game in the long run.

Learn to be wrong, fast.

"IN A LOSING GAME SUCH AS TRADING, WE SHALL START AGAINST THE MAJORITY AND ASSUME - WE ARE WRONG UNTIL PROVEN CORRECT! (We do not assume we are correct until proven wrong.) POSITIONS ESTABLISHED MUST BE REDUCED AND REMOVED UNTIL OR UNLESS THE MARKET PROVES THE POSITION CORRECT! (We allow the market to verify correct positions.)" ---POP

thanks art...gtty...Rob

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl:

Thanks for keeping us on the right side of this 200 point decline!

You da man!

I think you shd change your name to CARL BULLIA!

What's the point of all yur analysis if all you are going to do is keep calling for new highs!?

There is such a thing as a bear market and you have been like an ostrich throughout all of this.

Anonymous said...

It is incredible that so many people making comments here don't know how speculation really works. Can you all understand that market tells us if we are right or wrong and that we have change our view when market changes?? It is really so simple. Every trader need some view and has to know when the market shows him that he is wrong. Carl good job. All those anonymous "market masters" just loose money because they did not read 'Should you speculate' post on this blog.

Anonymous said...

Carl,if we dont get a Crossover in the time-frame as in the pic- see http://fredwilhelmus.googlepages.com/crossoverintraday-you are gonna be right:there will be a hell of a rally.

Anonymous said...

Now THIS is a magazine cover for the ages:

http://www.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,20081013,00.html

Anonymous said...

looks like your 1090 level is popular on the blogosphere http://marketkarma.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

Carl,

The SPX violated its 62% retracement and my indicator tell me that QQQQ is heading down to 28-30 area with RSI making a new low on the weekly charts!

I do not see anything that points to 1600 SPX!

extrader