Here is a five minute chart of today's e-mini day session. After the morning rally the market showed two signs of weakness. The first was the break below midpoint support defined by today's early reaction (dotted purple line). The second was the break below the high volume up bar that kicked off the rally (green arrows and red dashed line). This combination convinced me we had seen the day's high so I sold my long position. I now think today's low will be near 845 (bottom of the blue rectangle).The last two weeks has seen the market confined between 825-870, a relatively narrow range given recent volatility. I think a breakout from this range is imminent, and I think it will be to the upside.
3 comments:
Carl, I know you have refined your skills to what 'works' for you. I watch market structure and we have seen only one time in market histroy (since 1929 that is) where the structure was same as now....that was early to mid 1942. I hope it remain in tact as it too sugguests consolidation through end of April with huge burst UP starting very early May. Hard to base probabilities on 1 sample size, but its such a RARE market structure, it only comes around maybe two time in a lifetime....hopefully. Anyhow, you may take a look at a monthly chart in 1942 and compare the 3 contracting down bars followed by 3 expanding down bars...only other occurance was 2008-09.
I believe the sudden plunge then cover was due to this:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30436554
nice blog, Carl, I will learn from you and your box theory
all the best.
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