The dog that isn't barking

Here is a five minute chart of the e-mini day session. I have tried the short side twice today with no results. Whenever this happens I begin to suspect that I may be on the wrong side of the market.

Late yesterday we saw a clearly defined supply shock (red arrow). Volume associated with the shock was the highest in two weeks. After a supply shock like that one the market generally continues downward with only normal reactions. But today we instead see a relatively narrow trading range concentrated at the high end of my range estimate for the day (blue rectangle). The supply shock dog isn't barking like it normally would. I make it a rule to watch carefully for departures the market makes from normal behavior. Such departures often are important clues to subsequent trends.

In this case I think that my "down to 805" scenario hangs by a thread. Increasing volume which carries the e-minis above today's trading range and visibly away from its midpoint (purple dotted line) will cut this thread and mean that the e-minis are heading much higher.