Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Top of the range

Here is a five minute chart of today's e-mini day session. After the Fed news came out I bought two units at an average of 872.75 and then sold them at 877.25 after the move to new highs for the day and for the rally seemed to stall.

The market got within a point of the top of my range estimate for today (blue rectangle). I sensed that there wasn't going to be much of a net reaction to the Fed news - volume and volatility after the news were subdued compared to previous Fed announcements. Finally I thought I saw a volume climax (red arrows) near the top of my range estimate. So I sold my longs.

I am still bullish but think that it would be normal now to see a reaction of 8-12 points (purple rectangle) down to midpoint support (dotted purple line). I expect to be a buyer near there. In any case I think that tomorrow will be another bullish day.

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