Monday, April 20, 2009

New Range Estimate

Here is a five minute chart of today's e-mini day session. I bought two units at an average of 843 figuring that midpoint support at 845 would hold. Instead the market has dropped as low as 839.50, almost 12 points below its open and more than 5 points below support. This tells me that we have probably seen the day session high and that the day's low should be expected around the 830 level (blue rectangle). In light of this new information I did the only logical thing which was to get out of my long position.

So far the market has dropped about 12 points from its day session high without any rally. I think we shall now see a rally of about 8-10 points (purple rectangle). After this rally the move t0 the day's low should resume.

It now looks like the market has started a reaction that will last a couple of days and carry it down to support in the 820-25 range.

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