Here is an updated 5 minute bar chart of today's e-mini action. I sold my longs because the market broke below midpoint support (purple dotted line) on increasing volume (red arrows).This break of support means that I must revise my range estimate. I think the day's high is in place at 853. I believe that we shall see the day's low near the 827 level. This is near the midpoint of the reaction which carried the market down last week from 848 to 803 (both extremes were made electronically, not in the day session).
6 comments:
Why do you come up with all these intraday estimates? Assume nothing and take things as they come. Range estimates will make you trade with a bias and affect your trading.
Uhhmm... Perhaps because it works?
I realize it can be frustrating when the ranges change, but the estimated ranges can also be a good (diversifying) help to one's trading (especially if you "JUST" "take things as they come.").
Of course, you are partially correct in that nobody wants biases -- but I think many of us find Carl's views helpful.
Look, whenever you make a trade you are expressing a bias - obviously you believe that the market is going to go your way!
As a rule it makes sense to "bias" your trades so that they are in tune with your views on the trend direction in the time frame a little longer than the one in which you trade.
This idea of trading "without a bias" is a logical contradiction. People who try it tie their minds and eventually their accounts into knots.
At leat you are quick enough to admit that your bias is wrong. Have a view, but don't be married to that view. The mkt seems to be topping here. I think the top is in.
Carl:
since we can't post anonymous anymore ... why not allow the instant posting of comments? All other blogs seem to.
Carl,
do you ever use VIX in your market turning points?
Thanks :)
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