Tuesday, August 04, 2009

Guesstimates on August 4, 2009

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is again 985-1000. I think the rally will carry the e-minis to the 1120 level over the next few months.

QQQ: I expect to see 40.50 before a modest reaction begins.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: There is no sign of a top. Support is at 137.50 and I think the market will continue upward to 146.00.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has reached the 92.50 downside target and soon will begin a move up to 105.00.

September Crude: I am going to stay bullish for a move to 76 until and unless weakness below the 62.50 level develops.

GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 900.

SLV - September Silver: Silver is headed to 1700. Support is at 1250.

Google: Support is at 395. Next upside target is 500.


Adsense said...

first of all i want to say your work is very good . On top of that your a very good short term trader.
i come to your site and use it as a tool so to speak yet when it comes to trading i have to go by my own work 1st and if we agree then i look at how to blend it together if we dont agree then i still take a look at what you are thinking . in the end it comes down to me managing my own money .
that said i think your missing something in your medium term veiw at this short term juncture .
i can definately see the bullish picture of the overall market and i can see why your looking at the 980 area . myself it is just below at 970 . but time wise and cyclical wise it is my work that says look lower into november
i can see this in low to low to high counts on hourly and daily charts , the 10 day advance decline ling diverging ( yes i saw the new all time high )sentiment is also ripe for a consolidation phase at the very least which has happend roughly every 44 trading days over the past 9 months roughly . were entering another 44 trade day cycle now along with some bearish cycles and a diverging advance decline line along with a very low reading on the 10 day trin ( overbought )
to top it off the 20 day occilator reached it most overbought extreme yesterday . higher prices are possible but i would rather see sideways to lower . so my expectation are for a dificult market envirenement untill we see
the overbought readings come back to a more normal or even oversold condition and this tends to take
at a minimum 28 days to 65 days
my cycles are lined up along with my indicators .
bottom line im looking for lower prices for now . not new lows mind you just a bearish bias .
good luck

Adsense said...

the upward grind continues
and this is now becoming
the risky part for being bearish
bad technicals and an upward grind
ill give it the week to prove itself . but i still favor a decline .

snp500 said...

Carl, could you take a brief moment to comment on the implications of the Flash Trading ban? I know your blog is much more technical than it is fundamental, but I feel that there are technical implications to this potential ban.

Thanks much in advance sir.

Adsense said...

dear snp500
while im not carl i would think that banning flash trading would hurt those who sell the info yet in the broader picture im not so sure it means much at all .
now the very short term trader will have to think is all .
i find it ironic at times
( im not thinking of you snp500)
that people get to thinking of the ppt and the manipultion ect as the market grinds up after a big decline . if that was true then
whay would anyone bother to make forcasts and why would they be correct ?? take carl for instance
he is fairly good at calling market turns . ill note im not in agreement at the moment as i think this is a bit overdone despite the grind higher . but banning one form of trading to level the playing field so to speak means
very little as far as im concerned
good luck