Tuesday, August 18, 2009


Here is an hourly chart of e-mini day session trading. The market has recovered to the breakout level denoted by the horizontal red dash line. The volume on today's rally has been low. The size of the rally has just about matched the size of the last rally on the way down (purple rectangles). Morevover, the e-minis are not far from the descending red dash trendline.

All in all, the picture I see now is one of a market that will make new reaction lows before it moves up to the 1035 level. I think we shall see a drop down pretty close to 960. There the market would have fallen about as much as it did during several previous reactions over the March- May period. It would also be just a shade above the 957 June high which now is support. And by the time it reaches 960 it should be resting on the parallel green dash lower channel line.

I remain very bullish looking ahead more than a week. By the end of October I expect to see the e-minis trade above 1100.

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