Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Update

Here is a 60 minute bar chart of day session e-mini trading. I estimated today's day session range as 990-1005 early this morning, but I am now raising my estimate for today's high to 1015 (blue rectangle). Why?

I think today's first hour of trading is telling us in no uncertain terms that the reaction from last
Friday's high of 1016 has ended. Volume was high relative to previous first hour advances (purple ovals). The advance has been pretty much uncorrected, another sign of strength. So I think the market is telling us that a rally to 1035 and the upper trend channel (dashed red line) is underway.

The Fed announcement comes out at 2:15 pm today. I don't think it will contain any surprises and I want to be a buyer on any subsequent break.

2 comments:

David L. Spurr said...

10 Year Auction results could be providing a "tell" in the FOMC announcement - The auction went off at a higher rate than where the market had been trading prior to the announcement...

http://displacedema.blogspot.com/2009/08/do-participants-in-10yr-auction-know.html

Me vs. Wall St said...

Thanks for the update, Carl. I haven’t seen buying exhaustion in price and volume, and TICKS have not been overly aggressive. I think we get another spike as well.