Tuesday, August 04, 2009

Relentlessly upward

Here is a sixty minute bar chart of e-mini day session trading. This market is moving relentlessly upward on modest volume, a very bullish sign from a longer term point of view. Too much volume, too much enthusiasm would mean that the bullish side of the market is nearing exhaustion and meeting willing sellers. Instead the picture we see is of a market in which the buyers don't want to be too aggressive, but need to keep raising their bids to find sellers. The sellers seem happy to wait for substantially higher prices before marketing their wares.

I estimated a range of 15 points for today, but it looks like my estimated low of 985 will be 5 points too low. Even so, I see the market near the top of an obvious trend channel with a range today of not quite 15 points so far. I think that a reaction of about the same size of the last one is imminent (purple rectangles). This would bring the market down to 990 or so. Midpoint support is still at 987 (dotted purple line). The lower parallel for the trend channel can be drawn in two obvious ways (green dashed line). I think the next reaction will end close to one of them.

We are still only about halfway through an up swing which I think will carry the e-minis to 1120 by mid-October.

4 comments:

F&H Painting said...

The little train that just won't quit. Choo choooo...

ashraya said...

what scenario do you predict after eminis hit 1120?

unleaded said...

I must admit i admire your patience. You haven't traded for 4 days. You don't run after the price. This shows self control and experience.
It's a pleasure seeing you move about the market, man.

Adsense said...

Carl
as i look further at lindsays work and blend my own cycles into this
i have a mind set that is looking for a top . now maybe the data will prove me wrong and ill have to readjust what im thinking yet at this point here it is .
the nasdaq 100 has all the subdivisions for a 3 peaks domed house pattern even if a minor 1
it began nov 20 counting 7 months 8days from point 4 which is rare but there have been a few cases which are to be considered. that targets a point 23 high on aug 6th
looking at a mid section count on the spx or the dow for that matter
point E as i see it is the april 17th 2009 high . point H is the july 10 lows. ususing trading days on a close only basis we have a low april 20 a high june 12 which would call for the next close only high on august 6th using calander days i get aug 4th . if the nasdaq 100 hits 1648 and change it will be a fibonacci 61.8 % rally from the lows which by itself is suspect yet given the timing it has some merrit . this tells me a few things number 1 this is only the first leg up in terms of dow and spx . yet if i have point E labeled correctly then we will have had a time movement of
april 17 2009 to aug 6th 2009
or 111 calander days from point E to point J adding 111 calander days to aug 6th ( assuming its a high ) projects point A on november 25th . and here lies the
comparitve . my own cycles work call for a high on aug 7th and a down cycle into nov 12 th . lindsays work is now blending with my own cycles and these are completely different approaches to timing . so add to this further
the 10 trin closed below 1.00 which is now warning and giving an over bought reading .using an elliott wave point of veiw there is a farily clean 5 waves up when looking at the global dow .
there is just to many things coming to the same conclusion at this time frame to justify a bigger blow off move at this time .
we will see though soon enough .
good luck
id like to see your thoughts regarding thhe mid section count i bring up .
joe