Friday, August 07, 2009

Guesstimates on August 7, 2009

September S&P E-mini Futures: The response to the employment number has been positive thus far. I am estimating today's day session range as 998-1012. I think the rally will carry the e-minis to the 1120 level over the next few months.

QQQ: I expect to see 40.50 before a modest reaction begins.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: There is no sign of a top. Support is at 137.50 and I think the market will continue upward to 146.00.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has reached the 92.50 downside target and soon will begin a move up to 105.00.

September Crude: I am going to stay bullish for a move to 76 until and unless weakness below the 62.50 level develops.

GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 900.

SLV - September Silver: Silver is headed to 1700. Support is at 1250.

Google: Support is at 395. Next upside target is 500.


PM said...

Good Morning Carl,

Indeed, the numbers were positive as I expected, but my model is short as of yesterday. I was reluctant to take my sell signal, but I do take every signal because in the long run my model is really smarter than I am. Nothing is perfect, but it always keeps me out of serious trouble and dangerous waters. For today, my buy signal is a close above 1007.00. Needless to say, I'll be long before the close, in fact once prices move a tick or two above the 1007.00 price I'll be a buyer. Prices will have to close above 1007.00 to keep me long.


Kindest regards,


PM said...

Hi Carl,

Well, that was a quick short play for a few point loss. I would have paid higher, but by the time I got off the phone and back to the screen to place the order, the market already sold off some. So, I'm now long at 1005.00 and hoping for the rally to resume.

We must close above 1007 to confirm the buy signal.


Kindest regards.