Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Update

Here is an updated 30 minute bar chart of e-mini day session trading. The market has rallied a tad above the midpoint of the drop from 1016 to 976 (horizontal dash red line). So far it has also rallied just a little bit less than it did on the previous big rally on the way down to 976 (purple rectangles). Finally, it has stopped just shy of a declining parallel trend channel.

Since we so far have not seen any significant increase in trading volume above the 994 level I am going to stick with my view that the market will drop into the 960-70 range before it rallies to 1035. However, I think today's action is yet more evidence that the drop from 1016 is corrective in nature. Should we see strength above the declining red dash trendline I would conclude that the 976 level marked the low of the correction and that the market is headed for 1035.

4 comments:

Teich said...

I think we either

i) double-bottom at ES 976, or

ii) test ES 976 and go through it to test 960.

I have my money on the 1st scenario, but am prepared for the 2nd one.

Market Karma said...

Take a look at the housing stocks if you have a moment. I think its getting very interesting in this space. My preferred stock is HOV but you can also look at the XHB index.

Win said...

MK and Carl - I think you are both bullish. Please take a look at the Shanghai chart. Do you think this is the end of the correction? With respect,
Win

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
Im begining to think i was a bit early on my bearish thinking .
still leaning for a decline yet
the internals dont look as bad anymore which leaves the door open for higher prices. it look like the market managed ( so far ) to
bring the indicators down with out
lowering price . this is a bullish picture.
good luck
joe