The morning drop appears to be a reterst of the lows.
The question is whether the retest will fail or pass?
I really don't care to be in the middle of an argument between the bulls and the bears. Need a confirmation of either the breakdown or the rebound! A rebound is more likely but it is better to be safe than sorry.
Incidentally, it is first time since March 2009 that I am seeing red bars on DAILY charts.
The red bars on DAILY charts, mentioned above, are colored by the XTL indicator, i.e. eXpert Trend Locator. For whatever it is worth, this indicator seems to be quite reliable with the past data.
Do you think option activity a useful reference too? Feb & Mar Spy puts are overwhelming the calls from 113 and below, calls are popuplated above 113.
If big houses are the option writers (sellers), then SPY could be closed in FEB expiration date around 113, not below 110 based on the OIs. But would be a different story if the big house were the buyers this time. Any comments? Thanks!
Manufacturing report not good for the Qs, not good for the market. This is a new downtrend, Carl. While we will get a bounce, it may not amount to new highs. Tomorrow should be the low (ES 1060?), bounce starts Monday. Just my humble opinion.
However, personally, I am not not a top or bottom chaser. For me, they are unknowns. I prefer to play only with the known, when there is some persistence in the action.
The overnight future buyers must be getting frustrated. Last night, as Obama spoke, the ES Futures up movement was synchronized with every applause.
Maybe, Bernanke will jack up the ES Futures overnight and we will have another sell-off to 1060 tomorrow. After all, they can just print some more. No matter what we do, we will keep getting poorer as the FED has the power to create something out of nothing.
10 comments:
Carl,
The Q's seem to have broken support at $44, next stop is $43. This suggests that the ES will break as well.
The morning drop appears to be a reterst of the lows.
The question is whether the retest will fail or pass?
I really don't care to be in the middle of an argument between the bulls and the bears. Need a confirmation of either the breakdown or the rebound! A rebound is more likely but it is better to be safe than sorry.
Incidentally, it is first time since March 2009 that I am seeing red bars on DAILY charts.
The red bars on DAILY charts, mentioned above, are colored by the XTL indicator, i.e. eXpert Trend Locator. For whatever it is worth, this indicator seems to be quite reliable with the past data.
Carl,
Do you think option activity a useful reference too? Feb & Mar Spy puts are overwhelming the calls from 113 and below, calls are popuplated above 113.
If big houses are the option writers (sellers), then SPY could be closed in FEB expiration date around 113, not below 110 based on the OIs. But would be a different story if the big house were the buyers this time. Any comments? Thanks!
Manufacturing report not good for the Qs, not good for the market. This is a new downtrend, Carl. While we will get a bounce, it may not amount to new highs. Tomorrow should be the low (ES 1060?), bounce starts Monday. Just my humble opinion.
kishore:
want long at ES1076
ES hit 1074, your original low for this cycle. A very good call today. Hats off.
andi, good luck for going long at the "low".
However, personally, I am not not a top or bottom chaser. For me, they are unknowns. I prefer to play only with the known, when there is some persistence in the action.
i dont think 1075 is the bottom.... prolly more like 1060-65
The overnight future buyers must be getting frustrated. Last night, as Obama spoke, the ES Futures up movement was synchronized with every applause.
Maybe, Bernanke will jack up the ES Futures overnight and we will have another sell-off to 1060 tomorrow. After all, they can just print some more. No matter what we do, we will keep getting poorer as the FED has the power to create something out of nothing.
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