June S&P E-mini Futures:
Today's
range estimate is 1266-80. The market has dropped 25 points below the may 21
low at 1287.25, more than I would expect to see during a base building period.
A fast move back above 1287 is likely
and if it occurs then the short term picture will be very bullish. Given the
heavily bearish market sentiment I think that a big rally is imminent.
QQQ: Support now is at 59.50. The drop from 68.50
is nearly over and should be followed by a move to new bull market highs.
TNX (ten year note
yield):
The 10 year yield had dropped below the low of its recent multi-month trading
range. I suspect that QE III is just around the corner. If it is yields will
head back up to 3.00% and higher.
Euro-US Dollar: The market is bouncing
off of 1.2250 support. I see no sign that the decline is over. Indeed EU
survival will require a much lower euro than we see now. I think the market
will eventually drop well below 1.1500.
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed
for 75 and lower.
July Crude: The market is headed down to
75.
GLD – August Gold: The
market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at
1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is about to start.
SLV - July Silver: The market is getting
close to its December low at 26.27 where a sustained move up is likely to
start.
Google: Google broke support
at 590 and is now headed for its January low at 562. From there the market
should resume its move up to 750.
Apple: So
far AAPL has held well above its low at 528 (I think the reported 522.16 low
was a bad tick!) even as the S&P and the Dow have broken below their
corresponding lows. This is a very bullish development. It makes me think the
AAPL is now in fact headed above its 644 top instead of to 520 as I had thought
previously.
11 comments:
Why would dollar/yen drop if you're looking for risk (equities) to rise?
because the bank of Japan continues to pursue a tight monetary policy
Hey Carl, i have a question. the 200 dma is ~1285 , and you seem to place emphasis on 1287 , how important is moving avgs. in your work? ie. Thanks again for all you comments. mike
I watch the 50 and the 200 day and will start to question my market views (but not necessarily change them) if they conflict with the message of the moving averages.
How do you see Japan's monetary policy as tight relative to that of the U.S.? Both are passively or defacto tight, I agree.
jgw:
The Japanese central bank has been deflating the Japanese price level for 20 years now. The Fed will not tolerate deflation. That is the long run difference between the two. Until Japanese monetary policy starts to encourage modest levels of inflation the Yen will continue downward.
what I'm getting at is USD/JPY to 75 is upward for the Yen, not downward.
jgw:
You are talking about the yen-dollar while I am talking about the dollar-yen which is what is traded in the cash forex market.
jgw:
You are talking about the yen-dollar while I am talking about the dollar-yen which is what is traded in the cash forex market.
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