Tuesday, June 05, 2012

Guesstimates on June 5, 2012


June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1266-80. The market has dropped 25 points below the may 21 low at 1287.25, more than I would expect to see during a base building period. A  fast move back above 1287 is likely and if it occurs then the short term picture will be very bullish. Given the heavily bearish market sentiment I think that a big rally is imminent.  
QQQ:  Support now is at 59.50. The drop from 68.50 is nearly over and should be followed by a move to new bull market highs.
TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield had dropped below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. I suspect that QE III is just around the corner. If it is yields will head back up to 3.00% and higher.   
Euro-US Dollar: The market is bouncing off of 1.2250 support. I see no sign that the decline is over. Indeed EU survival will require a much lower euro than we see now. I think the market will eventually drop well below 1.1500.   
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.
July  Crude: The market is headed  down to  75.   
GLD – August Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is about to start.  
SLV - July Silver: The market is getting close to its December low at 26.27 where a sustained move up is likely to start.
Google: Google broke support at 590 and is now headed for its January low at 562. From there the market should resume its move up to 750.
Apple: So far AAPL has held well above its low at 528 (I think the reported 522.16 low was a bad tick!) even as the S&P and the Dow have broken below their corresponding lows. This is a very bullish development. It makes me think the AAPL is now in fact headed above its 644 top instead of to 520 as I had thought previously. 

11 comments:

JGW said...

Why would dollar/yen drop if you're looking for risk (equities) to rise?

Carl Futia said...

because the bank of Japan continues to pursue a tight monetary policy

mike said...

Hey Carl, i have a question. the 200 dma is ~1285 , and you seem to place emphasis on 1287 , how important is moving avgs. in your work? ie. Thanks again for all you comments. mike

Carl Futia said...

I watch the 50 and the 200 day and will start to question my market views (but not necessarily change them) if they conflict with the message of the moving averages.

john said...
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JGW said...

How do you see Japan's monetary policy as tight relative to that of the U.S.? Both are passively or defacto tight, I agree.

Carl Futia said...

jgw:

The Japanese central bank has been deflating the Japanese price level for 20 years now. The Fed will not tolerate deflation. That is the long run difference between the two. Until Japanese monetary policy starts to encourage modest levels of inflation the Yen will continue downward.

JGW said...

what I'm getting at is USD/JPY to 75 is upward for the Yen, not downward.

Carl Futia said...

jgw:

You are talking about the yen-dollar while I am talking about the dollar-yen which is what is traded in the cash forex market.

Carl Futia said...

jgw:

You are talking about the yen-dollar while I am talking about the dollar-yen which is what is traded in the cash forex market.

john said...
This comment has been removed by the author.