T-bonds

Here is an hourly chart showing pit trading in the December T-bond futures. I last commented on this market here.

I had thought that the 111-08 level was the end of the rally from the May lows, but today's action has changed the picture. Now the drop from 111-08 looks like a three phase correction. This implies that the 111-08 level will be exceeded soon.

My best guess is that the market will rally about 1/2 a box above 111-08, i.e. to 111-29 or so.

After that I still think the market will drop into the 106-107 zone.

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the December S&P e-mini futures. I commented on this market yesterday.

In this morning's guesstimate I said that the early morning low at 1327.50 probably ended the drop from the 1336.75 high of September 15. But instead the market has made new reaction lows. I think the drop will find support near the 1323 level and then a rally into the 1340-42 zone will begin.

Guesstimates on September 19, 8:50 am ET

December S&P Futures: The market took a peek below 1229 early this morning, dropping as low as 1327.50. The favorable PPI and housing starts news then kicked off a rally which I think will carry into the 1340-42 zone. From there a break of 10-20 points is likely. Much high prices are likely later this year.

December Bonds: I think the bonds are headed downward to 106-24.  Resistance is at 110-28. Short term support is at 109-16.

December 10 Year Notes: The market is headed down to 105. Short term downside target is 106-18. Resistance is at 107-10.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is at 127.60. The market is headed down to 122.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen should hold the 116.90 level. Next upside target is 120.00. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: The market is headed for 58.80 with resistance above the market at 64.50. Ultimately the current drop will carry the market down into the 50-55 range.

December Gold: I think a move below the 500 level is underway. Today resistance is at 602.

December Silver: I think the market is on its way below 900. Today resistance is at 1150.

Google:  Support is now at 399 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

December S&P Futures

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the December S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this market Friday.

As you can see the S&P's have been trading between 1337 and 1329 for two days now. I wouldn't be surprised to see the market take a brief peek below 1329 by dropping to 1327 or so. But my best guess is that the next 10 points from here (1332) will be up, not down.

December T-bonds hourly

T-bonds

Here is an hourly chart of pit trading in the December T-bond futures. I last commented on this market here.

I believe the market has started a drop that will carry it down into the 106-107 zone over the next few weeks. So far it looks like the decline will be controlled by boxes which are 42 ticks high as I have drawn on the chart.

Once the market makes a low in the 106-107 range I expect it to move up to 115 or so.

Guesstimates on September 18, 8:50 am ET

December S&P Futures: Support is at 1330 and the market should soon move into the 1340-42 range.  From there a break of 10-20 points is likely. Much high prices are likely later this year.

December Bonds: I think the bonds are headed downward to 106-24.  Resistance is at 110-28. Short term support is at 109-16.

December 10 Year Notes: The market is headed down to 105. Short term downside target is 106-18. Resistance is at 107-10.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is at 127.60. The market is headed down to 122.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen should hold the 116.90 level. Next upside target is 120.00. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: The market is headed for 58.80 with resistance above the market at 64.50. Ultimately the current drop will carry the market down into the 50-55 range.

December Gold: I think a move below the 500 level is underway. Today resistance is at 590.

December Silver: I think the market is on its way below 900. Today resistance is at 1100.

Google:  Support is now at 389 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the December S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this chart yesterday.

I had thought that the market would develop a third phase drop which would take it to 1323 but instead it rallied sharply above the 1330 level early this morning. I think the correction which started from this morning's high at 1336.75 will find support near 1330. At that level it would equal the length of yesterday's reaction.

The next step up should carry the S&P's into the 1340-42 zone from which point I think a drop of 10-20 points will develop.

I still expect to see the market trade above the 1400 level later this year.

Guesstimates on September 15, 8:50 am ET

December S&P Futures: It looks like the rally to 1340-42 has already started without a drop to 1323 first. However, support is still at 1323. Much high prices are likely later this year.

December Bonds: I think the bonds are headed downward to 106-24.  Resistance is at 110-28. Short term support is at 109-16.

December 10 Year Notes: The market is headed down to 105. Short term downside target is 106-18. Resistance is at 107-10.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is at 127.60. The market is headed down to 122.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen should hold the 115.30 level. Next upside target is 119.50. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: The market is headed for 58.80 with a brief rally likely from the 62.00 level. Ultimately the current drop will carry the market down into the 50-55 range.

December Gold: I think a move below the 500 level is underway. Today resistance is at 590.

December Silver: I think the market is on its way below 900. Today resistance is at 1125.

Google:  Support is now at 389 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

Gold

Here is an hourly chart showing pit and electronic trading in December gold futures. I last commented on this market here.

The market is headed much lower from here, probably into the 450-60 range before another multi-week rally can begin. In the meatime resistance above the market stands at 604 and I expect the next 10-20 dollar bounce to start from 565 or so.

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the December S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this market yesterday.

I think we have seen at least the first phase of a three phase correction which should carry from yesterday's top at 1332 to support at 1323. The second, upward phase of this correction will probably carry the market up a bit further, probably into the 1329-30 zone and be followed by the third phase drop to 1323.

The next substantial rally should carry from 1323 into the 1340-42 zone.

Crude Oil

Here is a daily chart of October crude oil futures. I last commented on this market here.

I had expected a rally from roughly the 68.00 level but the market has turned out to be even weaker than I expected. The drop from the last top at 78.80 in early August shows no sign of slowing down. So I conclude that the market is probably headed for the 1/2 division point of the next lower box which stands at the 58.80 level. From there I would expect a rally of 5 to 10 dollars to commence.

Guesstimates on September 14, 8:50 am ET

December S&P Futures: Support is now at 1323 and after a brief reaction we should see a renewed rally which will carry the market to 1340. Much high prices are likely later this year.

December Bonds: I think the bonds are headed downward to 106-24.  Resistance is at 110-28. Short term support is at 109-16.

December 10 Year Notes: The market is headed down to 105. Short term downside target is 106-18. Resistance is at 107-10.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is at 127.60. The market is headed down to 122.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen should hold the 115.30 level. Next upside target is 119.50. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: The 64.00 level is support. Ultimately the current drop will carry the market down into the 50-55 range.

December Gold: I think a move below the 500 level is underway. Today resistance is at 604.

December Silver: I think the market is on its way below 900. Today resistance is at 1150.

Google:  Support is now at 389 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

Projecting the Next Top

Here is a weekly chart of the cash S&P 500 index. I want to use it to illustrate a simple minded but effective technique for estimating the probable length of any trend.

The objective of any such estimate is to get you "in the right ballpark", the ballpark in which the extreme point of the trend will be playing. Making such estimates is as much art as science. But those who feel uncomfortable with the notion of speculation as an art should probably not be speculators.

In any event, the basic idea is to look for analogues of the current market situation in the market's recent history. At the moment I think that a strong uptrend has begun from a low point this past June. The June low (1219 in the cash S&P 500) occurred amidst oversold conditions and levels of public pessimism very comparable to the conditions which prevailed at the recent lows in August 2004, April 2005, and October 2005. On this basis I am willing to bet that the upmove from the June 2006 low will be comparable to the upmoves from one of these three previous lows.

In fact, I think that the level of bearish sentiment was so high at the June 2006 low that its closest analogues are the lows of August 2004 and October 2006. From each of these lows the market moved upward at least 158 points and the uptrend continued for at least 6 months. So I am willing to guess that the advance from the June low will carry upward at least 158 points (i.e to at least the 1377 level) and will last at least 6 months (i.e into December).

In fact I have been guessing that we shall see the S&P trade over the 1400 level by the end of the year. A move up from the June 2006 low that equals the August 2004-March 2005 advance in percentage terms would carry the S&P to 1414.

S&P

Here is an hourly bar chart of the December S&P e-mini futures. I commented on this chart yesterday afternoon.

So far the advance has been developing pretty much as anticipated. This morning the market traded as high as 1329.50, a new bull market high for the December contract. I am guessing that it will reach the 1330-31 zone before a reaction sets in. The first reaction should be a small one and I think it will probably halt near 1323 support. The next upward phase is likely to carry the market to 1340 or a point or two higher.

Guesstimates on September 13, 7:20 am ET

December S&P Futures: We should see a 1330 print today.  Support is at 1315.  The 1340 level should be reached in a week or two. Much high prices are likely later this year.

December Bonds: I think the bonds are headed downward to 106-24.  Resistance is at 110-28. Short term support is at 109-16.

December 10 Year Notes: The market is headed down to 105. Short term downside target is 106-18. Resistance is at 107-10.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is now at 127.60. The market is headed down to 122.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen should hold the 115.30 level. Next upside target is 119.50. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: The market has been weaker than I expected. The 64.00 level is now support. Ultimately the current drop will carry the market down into the 50-55 range.

December Gold: I think a move below the 500 level is underway.

December Silver: I think the market is on its way below 900.

Google:  Support is now at 369 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

S&P Headed Up

Here is an hourly chart of the December S&P e-mini futures.

In the post I made about 90 minutes ago I explained why I had changed my mind about the short term trend direction and believed it was now upward. On this hourly bar chart I have drawn the resistance and support levels which I believe will control the market's action over the next couple of weeks.

First of all, I expect a minor hesitation of a day or two once the market reaches the 1330 level, just above its September 5 top and just below the May 5 top. Support for any reaction from that level will be a 1315.

The next drop of any significance will probably develop from about the 1340 level, although even then I doubt we shall see more than a 25 point break.

I still believe that we shall see the S&P trade above 1400 by the end of the year.

S&P Update

Here is a 15 minute bar chart of the December S&P futures.

In my post earlier this morning I said that should the market hit the 1321 level I would conclude that the reaction ended at 1302.50 and that the short term trend would now be upward. I have since been mulling over the significance of the fact that that the S&P's moved a full 5.50 points above what should have been ideal resistance at 1315 and did so in a decisive fashion.

The first observation I want to make is that another break equal to yesterday afternoon's drop of 5.75 points would put the market right at its 1314.75 high, an obvious support point. This suggests that indeed the trend may well have already turned upward.

The second observation concerns the daily count of the number of advancing issues on the New York Stock Exchange. This is the second chart above this post. The daily count is the black line and the 5 day moving average is the pink line.

Notice that yesterday's reaction low occurred together with a higher low in the daily count of the number of advancing issues. This is a minor bullish divergence. Note also that this minor divergence occurred with the 5 day moving average in an "oversold postion" and below its last low. These facts are further evidence that yesterday's low at 1302.50 ended the drop from 1327.

Since I am generally bullish on the S&P the above considerations have convinced me that the 1302.50 low will hold. In fact I doubt that the reaction from this morning's high at 1320.50 will go even as far as 1315.00. I think the next stop will be the 1330 level and this should only be temporary resistance.

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this market here.

The market has rallied as far as 1319.50 so far, well above the 1315-17 zone mentioned in this morning's guesstimate. If I am reading the market correctly a move down to 1298 and then to 1293 should begin right here.

Should the market instead hit the 1321 level I will conclude that the correction actually ended at yesterday's 1302.50 low yesterday and that the S&P's will soon trade above 1330.

Guesstimates on September 12, 8:50 am ET

December S&P Futures: There is still a good chance that the market will make it into the 1315-1317 zone today before it begins to drop to the 1293 correction target. Much high prices are likely later this year.

December Bonds: I think the bonds are headed downward to 106-24.  Resistance is at 110-28. Short term support is at 109-16.

December 10 Year Notes: The market is headed down to 105. Short term downside target is 106-18. Resistance is at 107-10.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is now at 127.60. The market is headed down to 122.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen should hold the 115.30 level. Next upside target is 119.50. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: The market has been weaker than I expected. The 64.00 level is now support. Ultimately the current drop will carry the market down into the 50-55 range.

December Gold: I think a move below the 500 level is underway.

December Silver: I think the rally from the June low around 945 is complete and that the market is on its way below 900.

Google:  Support is now at 369 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

S&P Update

Here is an hourly chart of the December S&P e-mini futures. I commented on this chart earlier today.

I had thought that today's weak open was the harbringer of the third third phase of the correction which started from the 1327 level in the December contract last Tuesday. I now expect this correction to carry the market down to 1293 or so.

Instead of bouncing off of the 1308 level the market blew right through and so far has traded as high as 1312.25. My best guess now is that the rally will continue up to my original target of 1315 or perhaps a point or two higher. After that I still think we shall see a three phase break down to 1293 followed by a very strong move up to new highs for the bull market.

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the December S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this market here.

I think the market is on its way to 1298 and then to 1293. Meantime resistance today is 1308.

After the 1293 level is reached I expect to see a strong rally which will carry the market above the 1330 level. Moreover, I think that we shall see the futures trade at 1400 by the end of the year.

Guesstimates on September 11, 8:50 am ET

December S&P Futures: The market is now headed for 1298.  The fact that it couldn’t make it up to 1315 tells me that the low of the correction will probably be lower than I originally expected: 1293 or so vs. 1298.  Much high prices are likely later this year.

December Bonds: I think the bonds are headed downward to 106-24.  Resistance is at 110-28. Short term support is at 109-16.

December 10 Year Notes: The market is headed down to 105. Short term downside target is 106-18. Resistance is at 107-10.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is now at 127.60. The market is headed down to 122.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen should hold the 115.30 level. Next upside target is 119.50. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: The market has been weaker than I expected. The 64.00 level is now support. Ultimately the current drop will carry the market down into the 50-55 range.

December Gold: I think a move below the 500 level is underway.

December Silver: I think the rally from the June low around 945 is complete and that the market is on its way below 900.

Google:  Support is now at 369 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

Silver

Here is a daily chart of December silver futures. I last commented on this market here.

I have drawn solid red lines to indicate the boundaries of a 575 cent box defined by the 1520 high and the 945 low in July Silver. After the low in June the market has managed to rally to the 2/3 division point of the box (higher of the two blue dotted lines). The break of the past two days has convinced me that the rally is over and that an extended drop has started.

The next downside target is the 1/2 division point of the next lower box. This is the 660 level.

Gold

Here is a daily chart of December gold futures. I last commented on this market here.

On this chart I have drawn the box which is defined by the May-June break in gold futures. The top was at 732 in the June contract and the low was at 547.10 in the August contract, giving a box size of 184.90.

The market has been oscillating roughly between the 1/3 and the 2/3 division points of this box (blue dotted lines). The break during the past two days has convince me that we have seen three consecutive lower tops in gold (black lines). This is a very bearish indication and makes me think that the market is now headed below the 500 level.

The 1/2 division point of the next lower box is at 455 and I think this is a reasonable target for this drop.

Guesstimates on September 8, 8:50 am ET

December S&P Futures: Switching to the December contract which trades about 11 points above September. I expect the market to rally to 1315 or so today and then begin a third phase drop to 1298. Much high prices are likely later this year.

December Bonds: I think the bonds are headed downward to 106-24. Resistance is at 110-20. Short term support is at 109-16.

December 10 Year Notes: The market is headed down to 105. Short term downside target is 106-18. Resistance is at 107-10.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has sagged below the 127.30 level and I conclude that a substantial drop is underway. Initial downside target is 122.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen should hold the 115.30 level. Next upside target is 119.50. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: The market has dropped to the bottom of the current box at 67.20. I now expect a rally to 72.50 or so.

December Gold: It looks like gold made a second lower top earlier this week so I am abandoning my 665-70 rally target. I think a move below the 500 level is underway.

December Silver: Earlier this week silver rallied to within 15 cents of the 1350 upside target but now has dropped more than a dollar in just a couple of days. I think the rally from the June low around 945 is complete and that the market is on its way below 900.

Google: Support is now at 369 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.

S&P Update

Here is an updated hourly chart of the December S&P futures. I commented on this chart this morning.

I have a strong suspicion that the rally that began from the morning low at 1304 and carried to 1313.75 early this afternoon is only the first phase of a three phase rally. If I am correct then the market will hold support at 1303 and then rally a little above today's high, getting close to or a little above resistance at 1315. One reason for my suspicion is that the number of advancing issues today is visibly higher than yesterday's number despite the fact that the market has been trading below yesterday's close all day.

In any event once the rally is complete I expect a third phase drop to 1298 and then a move above the 1330 level.

S&P

Today trading activity switched into the December contract from the September contract in the S&P e-mini futures. The December contract is trading about 11 points over September.

I last commented on this market yesterday.

This morning's low at 1293 in the September contract and 1304 in the December contract was probably the end of the first phase of the ongoing three phase correction. The second phase rally will probably carry the December contract close to 1315 and be followed by a third phase drop to a correction low near 1298. Once the 1298 level is reached I shall start looking for a rally to new bull market highs above 1330.

Guesstimates on September 7, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: The dropped as low as 1296.50 this morning but I think this is still only the first phase of a longer correction which should end around the 1291 level. The next phase will be a rally from roughly this morning’s low into the 1303-08 range and them the third phase drop to 1291 will follow. Much high prices are likely later this year.

December Bonds: I think the bonds are headed downward to 106-24.  Resistance is at 110-14. Short term support is at 109-16.

December 10 Year Notes: The market is headed down to 105. Short term downside target is 106-18. Resistance is at 107-04.

Euro-US Dollar: The 127.30 level has been reached this morning. I shall stick with my expectation of a move up to 130.60 as long as this support holds.  

Dollar-Yen: The yen should hold the 115.30 level. Next upside target is 119.50. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: The market has dropped a little below 68.00 support and has nearly reached the bottom of the current box at 67.20.  I now expect a rally to 72.50 or so.

December Gold: I am still short term bullish on gold and expect it to rally into the 665-670 range before the market turns much lower.

December Silver: I am still short term bullish on silver but the market is getting close to the 1350 upside target.  After this rally a drop to below 900 should develop.  

Google:  Support is now at 369 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the September S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this market here.

So far the market is following the script for a three phase correction ending near 1291. In the ideal pattern, the first phase would carry to 1300 or a little below. Then the second phase rally would retrace about half of the initial drop and be followed by the third phase down to 1291.

The most important thing to remember is that this decline is only a correction within a bigger uptrend. I still expect the market to trade above the 1400 level by the end of the year.

Crude Oil

Here is a daily chart of October crude oil futures. I last commented on this market here.

As you can see the support level at 68.00 has been reached. On this chart I have drawn the boxes which I think are controlling the drop from the July 14 all time high in crude oil. In the August 2006 contract this high was 78.40. The subsequent break carried to a low of 72.80 in the September contract and thus defined a box whose height is $5.60.

The bottom of the current box is at 67.20. I think we will now see a rally about equal to the last rally which was $4.80. It should carry the market close to the top of the current box which stands at 72.80. After this rally the market should drop well below the 68.00 level.

Guesstimates on September 6, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: The market stalled twice at 1316.50 yesterday and couldn’t quite make it to the day target of 1319.  Nonetheless the 1315 short term resistance level has held and today’s early action indicates that the three phase move down to 1291 has begun. Much high prices are likely later this year.

December Bonds: I think the next big move in the bonds will be downward to 106-24.  Resistance is at 111-00. Short term support is at 109-16.

December 10 Year Notes: The market is headed down to 105. Short term downside target is 106-18. Resistance is at 107-10.

Euro-US Dollar: The 127.30 level is still support and I expect a move to 130.60 before that support is broken.

Dollar-Yen: The yen should hold the 115.30 level. Next upside target is 119.50. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: The market has reached the 68.00 target and I think the next significant development will be a rally into the 73-75 zone.

December Gold: I am still short term bullish on gold and expect it to rally into the 665-670 range before the market turns much lower.

December Silver: I am still short term bullish on silver but the market is getting close to the 1350 upside target.  After this rally a drop to below 900 should develop.  

Google:  Support is now at 369 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the September S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this chart Friday.

In electronic trading Sunday night the market hit the 1315 short term upside target and Monday rallied as high as 1316.75. In regular hours trading today we saw a modest reaction to 1310 and now another rally has begun. My best guess is that the market will make a high today near 1319 and then begin its break to 1291.

Guesstimates on September 5, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: The 1315 target level has been reached. The next development should be a three phase break to 1291 followed by a move above the 1330 level. Much high prices are likely later this year.

December Bonds: I think the next big move in the bonds will be downward to 106-24.  Resistance is at 111-00.

December 10 Year Notes: The market will soon begin a move down to 105.  Resistance is at 107-10.

Euro-US Dollar: The 127.30 level is still support and I expect a move to 130.60 before a substantial down move starts.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke support near 116.30 but should hold the 115.30 level. Next upside target is 119.50. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: The market has reached the 68.00 target and I think the next significant development will be a rally into the 73-75 zone.

December Gold: I am still short term bullish on gold and expect it to rally into the 665-670 range before the market turns much lower.

December Silver: I am still short term bullish on silver but the market is getting close to the 1350 upside target.  After this rally a drop to below 900 should develop.  

Google:  Support is now at 369 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the September S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this chart here.

As you can see the market has nearly reached the 1315 target and I think that next week will see at least the first phase of a three phase corrective move. I doubt that any correction will drop the market below 1291. In any event the subsequent up move should carry futures above 1331, the bull market high so far.

I still think that the futures will trade above 1400 by the end of the year.

Guesstimates on September 1, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: Support is at 1299. The market will probably rally to 1315 or so, a little above my initial estimate of resistance in the 1309-12 zone. After that a 25 point break should develop. Much high prices are likely later this year.

December Bonds: The market has gone about 10 ticks higher than I expected. Still I think the next big move in the bonds will be downward to 106-24. Resistance is at 111-00.

December 10 Year Notes: The market will soon begin a move down to 105. Resistance is at 107-10.

Euro-US Dollar: The 127.30 level is still support and I expect a move to 130.60 before a substantial down move starts.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is on the way to 119.50. Support is at 116.30. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: The market dropped into the 68.00-69.00 zone Wednesday and I think the next significant development will be a rally into the 73-75 zone.

December Gold: I am still short term bullish on gold and expect it to rally into the 665-670 range before the market turns much lower.

December Silver: Switching to the December contract today. I am still short term bullish on silver and think that a move up to 1350 or so in the cards. After this rally a drop to below 900 should develop.

Google: Support is now at 369 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.

Board of Trade

Here is a daily chart of the Chicago Board of Trade. I last commented on BOT here.

I think that BOT will rally to a new high around the 148 level by the end of the year.

Chicago Merchantile Exchange

Here is a daily chart of the Chicago Merchantile Exchange. I last commented on this stock here.

I still think CME has more on the upside in this bull market. I am sticking with my original 541 target and I expect it to be reached by the end of the year.

NYSE Group

Here is a daily chart of the New York Stock Exchange Group since its IPO last March. I last commented on this stock a couple of months ago.

I am bullish on the general market as you know and I think NYX will participate in the rally. My upside target is 103, the 2 and 1/8 multiple of its June low.

Guesstimates on August 31, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: Support is at 1299. The market will probably rally to 1315 or so, a little above my initial estimate of resistance in the 1309-12 zone.  After that a 25 point break should develop. Much high prices are likely later this year.

December Bonds: Switching to the December contract today.  The market has gone about 10 ticks higher than I expected. Still I think the next big move in the bonds will be downward to 106-24.  Resistance is at 111-00.

December 10 Year Notes: Switching to the December contract today. The market will soon begin a move down to 105.  Resistance is at 107-10.

Euro-US Dollar: The 127.30 level is now support and I still expect a move to 130.60 before a substantial down move starts.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is on the way  to 119.50. Support is at 116.30. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: The market dropped into the 68.00-69.00 zone yesterday and I think the next significant development will be a rally into the 73-75 zone.

December Gold: I am still short term bullish on gold and expect it to rally into the 665-670 range before the market turns much lower.

December Silver: Switching to the December contract today. I am still short term bullish on silver and think that a move up to 1350 or so in the cards.  After this rally a drop to below 900 should develop.  

Google:  Support is now at 369 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the September S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this market here.

I think the market will soon hit the 1315 level. A reaction will probably begin next week. I expect it to be a little smaller than the early August break which was about 35 points. My best guess is that the market will drop from 1315 to 1291 or so. After the correction I expect a renewed rally which will continue to new bull market highs above the 1330 level.

Guesstimates on August 30, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: Support is at 1299. The market will probably rally to 1315 or so, a little above my initial estimate of resistance in the 1309-12 zone. After that a 10-20 point break should develop. Much high prices are likely later this year.

September Bonds: I think the next big move in the bonds will be downward to 106-24. Resistance is at 110-08.

September 10 Year Notes: The market will soon begin a move down to 105. Resistance is at 107-04.

Euro-US Dollar: The 127.30 level is now support and I still expect a move to 130.60 before a substantial down move starts.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is on the way to 119.50. Support is at 116.30. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: Resistance is at 73.50 and I still think we shall see the market break to 68.00 or so before a more substantial rally starts.

December Gold: I am still short term bullish on gold and expect it to rally into the 665-670 range before the market turns much lower.

September Silver: I am still short term bullish on silver and think that a move up to 1350 or so in the cards. After this rally a drop to below 900 should develop.

Google: Support is now at 369 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.

Guesstimates on August 29, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: The market will probably rally to 1315 or so, a little above my initial estimate of resistance in the 1309-12 zone.  After that a 10-20 point break should develop. Much high prices are likely later this year.

September Bonds: I think the next big move in the bonds will be downward to 106-24.  

September 10 Year Notes: The market will soon begin a move down to 105.  

Euro-US Dollar: The 127.30 level is now support and I still expect a move to 130.60 before a substantial down move starts.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is on the way  to 119.50. Support is at 116.30. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: Resistance is at 73.50 and I still think we shall see the market break to 68.00 or so before a more substantial rally starts.  

December Gold: I am still short term bullish on gold and expect it to rally into the 665-670 range before the market turns much lower.

September Silver: I am still short term bullish on silver and think that a move up to 1350 or so in the cards.  After this rally a drop to below 900 should develop.  

Google:  Support is now at 369 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the September S&P e-mini futures. I last discussed this chart here.

I had expected the market to break below the lows of the last two days and continue to 1287. Instead, this mornign the market staged a decisive upside breakout from the same range. Support is now at 1299 and as long as this level holds I shall think that the market is now headed up into the 1309-12 zone. From there a break of 20-25 points is likely the move to new bull market highs resumes.

Guesstimates on August 28, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: I now expect a drop to 1287 or so and then a move up into the 1309-12 zone.

September Bonds: I think the next big move in the bonds will be downward to 106-24.  

September 10 Year Notes: The market will soon begin a move down to 105.  

Euro-US Dollar: The 127.00 level is support and I still expect a move to 130.60 before a substantial down move starts.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is on the way  to 119.50. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: Resistance is at 73.50 and I still think we shall see the market break to 68.00 or so before a more substantial rally starts.  

December Gold: I am short term bullish on gold and expect it to rally into the 665-670 range before the market turns much lower.

September Silver: I am short term bullish on silver and think that a move up to 1350 or so in the cards.  After this rally a drop to below 900 should develop.  

Google:  Support is now at 369 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the September S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this market Wednesday.

The market has tried for two days to rally from support at 1293 but so far has not attracted any aggressive buyers. I think this means that the rally from 1291.50 has been only the second phase of a bigger three phase correction. I expect the third phase to carry a little lower to 1287 or so. Then the market should rally to the next resistance zone of 1309-12.

T-bonds

Here is a daily chart of the September T-bond futures. I last commented on this market here.

The market has entered my long standing target range of 110-111 for the rally from the May low. I see resistance at 110-08 and I think the next significant move in the bonds will be downward to a low above the May low. Right now I am guessing that this upcoming low will develop around the 106-24 level.

Dow Three Peaks and a Domed House

I have been following two developing examples of George Lindsay's Three Peaks and a Domed House formation in the Dow Industrials. My last post on this subject can be found here.

Above you see the updated, highly condensed daily chart of the Dow Industrial average. I have annoted the chart with blue numerals showing the turning points for the 3P-DH major formation and with red numerals showing the turning points of the minor formation. The numerals refer to the ideal schematic of the 3P-DH formation which can be found here.

At the moment I think the minor (red) formation has established its point 14 low on August 11. The market is now moving up from point 14 and the next phase of the minor formation should be what Lindsay called "the roof of the first story". This constitutes points 15-20 of the formation and often assumes the appearance of an upward sloping trading range. I do not think we have yet seen point 15.

The entire rally from the July low in the Dow should bring the market to point 23 of the minor formation and to point 27 of the major formation (blue numerals). I think this top is likely to develop about 7 months and 10 days from red point 6. This would place it in late November of this year. I think that the Dow will probably rally to or a bit above the 12000 level by that time.

If this is indeed a major formation then after the November high the market should drop subtantially to the price level at which the major formation began. This is my estimation is the 9800 level in the Dow.

Guesstimates on August 25, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: I think the reaction from the 1307.75 level ended Wednesday at 1291.50. A move into the 1309-12 zone has begun.

September Bonds: I think the bonds will soon reach 110-08 and then break several points.  

September 10 Year Notes: A rally to 107-12 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: Yesterday a rally back above the 128.00 level was decisively reversed and now I think the market will drop back to near its last important low near 127.00.  As long as that level holds I will continue to look for a move to 130.60 before a substantial down move starts.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is on the way  to 119.50. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: Resistance is at 73.50 and I still think we shall see the market break to 68.00 or so before a more substantial rally starts.  

December Gold: I am short term bullish on gold and expect it to rally into the 665-670 range before the market turns much lower.

September Silver: I am short term bullish on silver and think that a move up to 1350 or so in the cards.  After this rally a drop to below 900 should develop.  

Google:  Support is now at 369 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

Guesstimates on August 24, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: The reaction ended at the 1291.50 level yesterday and now a move into the 1309-12 zone has begun.

September Bonds: I think will soon reach 110-08 and then break several points.  

September 10 Year Notes: A rally to 107-12 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has been oscillating around the 128.00 support level and I still think that the next development will be a rally to 130.60.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 115.80. The yen is on the way  to 119.50. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: Resistance is at 73.50 and I still think we shall see the market break to 68.00 or so before a more substantial rally starts.  

December Gold: I am now short term bullish on gold and expect it to rally into the 665-670 range before the market turns much lower.

September Silver: I am short term bullish on silver and think that a move up to 1350 or so in the cards.  After this rally a drop to below 900 should develop.  

Google:  Support is now at 369 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the September S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this market yesterday afternoon.

I had believed that yesterday's late rally started from the end of a three phase correction, but it now appears that the third phase of the drop from 1307.75 is still in progress. I expect it to end near support at 1293 and be followed by a rally into the 1309-12 short term target zone.

Guesstimates on August 23, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: The is holding 1299 support and should now rally into the 1309-12 zone.

September Bonds: I think will soon reach 110-08 and then break several points.  

September 10 Year Notes: A rally to 107-12 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is holding support at 128.00.  I still think it likely that the market will move up to 130.60 before a substantial drop starts.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 115.80. The yen is on the way  to 119.50. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: Resistance is at 74.00 and I still think we shall see the market break to 68.00 or so before a more substantial rally starts.  

December Gold: I am now short term bullish on gold and expect it to rally into the 665-670 range before the market turns much lower.

September Silver: I am short term bullish on silver and think that a move up to 1350 or so in the cards.  After this rally a drop to below 900 should develop.  

Google:  Support is now at 376 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the September S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this chart here.

In this morning's guesstimate I said that the drop from the early morning high of 1305.50 in electronic trading looked like the start of a third phase of a three phase correction. I estimated that the correction would carrry the market down to 1293 or so. In the event the market rallied again to 1305 in early trading but then broke to 1297.75 on the comments of two Fed presidents.

I think the market over-reacted to this minor news and the fact that yesterday's low was broken by only a point before a good rally began supports this view. I think that a three phase correction from Friday's high at 1307.75 in now over and that the market will trade into the 1309-12 zone over the next day or two.

Guesstimates on August 22, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: The market bounced off of support at 1299 yesterday but only rallied as high as 1305.50 in electronic trading this morning before dropping back to yesterday’s support.  I suspect that this morning’s break started the third phase of a small three phase correction which should carry to 1293 or so. After this drop the market should then rally into the 1309-12 zone.

September Bonds: I think will soon reach 110-08 and then break several points.  

September 10 Year Notes: A rally to 107-12 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: The market bounced off of resistance at 129.40 yesterday but should hold support at 128.00 today.  I think it likely that the market will then move up to 130.60 before a substantial drop starts.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 115.30. The yen is on the way  to 119.50. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

October Crude: Switching to the October contract. Resistance is at 74.00 and I still think we shall see the market break to 68.00 or so before a more substantial rally starts.  

December Gold: I am now short term bullish on gold and expect it to rally into the 665-670 range before turning much lower.

September Silver: I am short term bullish on silver and think that a move up to 1350 or so in the cards.  After this rally a drop to below 900 should develop.  

Google:  Support is now at 376 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the September S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this chart here.

So far the market has held 1299 support and the odds now favor a rally into the 1309-1312 resistance zone. Any reaction from this zone should be limited to 10-20 points and will be followed by a move that will take out the May high at 1331. I think the market will reach 1417 by the end of the year.

Silver

Here is a daily bar chart of December silver futures. I last commented on this market here.

I now think silver has begun a rally that will carry it to 1350 or so. Once this rally is complete I expect a move to below the 900 level to start.

December Gold

Gold

Here is a daily bar chart of December gold futures. I last commented on this market here.

I had believed that the market was on its way below 500 but the last couple of day's price action has convinced me that a move to the top of the current trading range will develop first. i expect gold to rally into the 665-70 range and then start a drop to below 500.

Guesstimates on August 21, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: Support today is at 1299.  The market should make a temporary top in the 1309-12 zone but break no more than 10-20 points from there. The 1417 level should be reached by the end of the year.  

September Bonds: I think will soon reach 110-08 and then break several points.  

September 10 Year Notes: A rally to 107-12 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: I am a little more bullish on the euro now and while there is minor resistance near 129.40 I think it likely that the market move up to 130.60 before a substantial drop starts.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 115.30. The yen is on the way  to 119.50. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

September Crude: Downside target is 68.00 and resistance above the market is at 73.50.

December Gold: I am now short term bullish on gold and expect it to rally into the 665-670 range before turning much lower.

September Silver: I am short term bullish on silver and think that a move up to 1350 or so in the cards.  After this rally a drop to below 900 should develop.  

Google:  Support is now at 376 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

Guesstimates on August 18, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: Support is now at 1292.  The market is on its way to 1309 and eventually to 1417 by the end of the year.

September Bonds: I think the bonds are on the way to 110.

September 10 Year Notes: A rally to 107-16 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market will rally to 129.40 before a big drop starts.  Support is at 127.70 and weakness below there will mean that the big drop I am expecting has already begun.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 115.30. The yen is on the way  to 119.50. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

September Crude: Downside target is 68.00 and resistance above the market is at 76.60.

December Gold: I now think that gold has begun an extended drop that will carry it below the 500 level.

September Silver: I think silver has begun an extended drop that will carry it below 900.  

Google:  Support is now at 376 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

Nasdaq Composite

Here is a weekly chart of the Nasdaq Composite Index. I last commented on this chart here.

I think this index is headed for my primary target of 2550, just underneath the level which is 1/2 of the 2000 high point at 5133. My best guess is that this target will be reached by late November 2006.

Guesstimates on August 17, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: A reaction from 1300 down to support at 1289 would be normal at this juncture. The market is on its way to 1309 and eventually to 1417 by the end of the year.

September Bonds: I think the bonds are on the way to 110.

September 10 Year Notes: A rally to 107-16 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: I thought the rally would halt near 128.20 but the market blew through there on yesterday’ CPI news. The euro now is on its way to 129.40 but I think the next 500 pips from current levels will be downward.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 115.30. The yen is on the way  to 119.50. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

September Crude: Downside target is 68.00 and resistance above the market is at 76.60.

December Gold: I now think that gold has begun an extended drop that will carry it below the 500 level.

September Silver: I think silver has begun an extended drop that will carry it below 900.  

Google:  Support is at 364 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

S&P Update

Here is an updated version of the hourly September S&P e-mini futures chart that I commented on this morning.

The market has taken a peek above the 1297.75 high and I think the odds are better than even that we shall now see a modest reaction. I have raised my estimate of support to 1289 from 1283. My short term upside target is still 1309 and I also think we shall see the 1417 level later this year.

Bull Market Boxes

S&P Bull Market Boxes

Here is a weekly chart of the cash S&P 500 showing the 185 point bull market boxes that have controlled the big swings within the bull market that began from the 768 low in 2002. I last commented on this chart here.

The market's reaction from the 1326 high in early May started from the top of a box and ended in June at the 1/2 point of the same box. I now think that the S&P is headed for the 1/2 point of the next higher box. This is the 1417 level and I expect the market to reach this target by the end of the year.

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the September S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this market here.

The market is very close to its last top (dashed line) at 1297.75. It would be typical behavior for the futures to take a brief peek above 1297.75 and then drop 10-15 points before resuming their move to 1309. In any event I see support at 1283, the last top on the way up.

Guesstimates on August 16, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: I think that the correction which began from the 1297.75 level on August 4 ended at 1262.50. The market is now headed for 1309. Support is at 1286

September Bonds: I think the bonds are on the way to 110.

September 10 Year Notes: A rally to 107-16 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has started a drop that will take it below 123.00 over the next few weeks. Resistance is now at 128.20.  

Dollar-Yen: Support today is at 115.30. The yen is on the way  to 119.50. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

September Crude: Downside target is 68.00 and resistance above the market is at 76.60.

December Gold: I now think that gold has begun an extended drop that will carry it below the 500 level.

September Silver: I think silver has begun an extended drop that will carry it below 900.  

Google:  Support is at 364 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

Guesstimates on August 15, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: I think that the correction which began from the 1297.75 level on August 4 ended at 1262.50. The market is now headed for 1309. Support is at 1276.

September Bonds: The 108-04 level is support and I think the bonds have started to rally to 110.

September 10 Year Notes: Support is at 105-28 and a rally to 107-16 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has started a drop that will take it below 123.00 over the next few weeks. Resistance is now at128.20.  

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen has held 114.30 support and is now on the way  to 119.50. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

September Crude: Downside target is 68.00 and resistance above the market is at 76.60.

December Gold: I now think that gold has begun an extended drop that will carry it below the 500 level.

September Silver: I think silver has begun an extended drop that will carry it below 900.  

Google:  Support is at 364 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

Crude Oil

Here is a daily chart of September crude oil futures. I last commented on this market here.

I think the market has made a lower top and is now headed for support in the 68.00-69.00 range. If I am right about the longer term picture crude will bounce only three or four dollars up from this support zone and soon after will trade well below 68.00.

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the September S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this market here.

I think the market is on its way to my next upside target at 1309. Last night the market traded above its last top at 1276 and this level is now acting as support for any reaction.

Guesstimates on August 14, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: I think that the correction which began from the 1297.75 level on August 4 ended at 1262.50. The market is now headed for 1309.

September Bonds: The 108-04 level is support and I think the bonds are about to rally to 110.

September 10 Year Notes: Support is at 105-28 and the next development will be a rally to 107-16.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has started a drop that will take it below 123.00 over the next few weeks. Resistance is now at128.20.  

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen has held 114.30 support and is now on the way  to 119.50. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

September Crude: Downside target is 68.00 and resistance above the market is at 76.60.

December Gold: I now think that gold has begun an extended drop that will carry it below the 500 level.

September Silver: I think silver has begun an extended drop that will carry it below 900.  

Google:  Support is at 364 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

Guesstimates on August 11, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: I think that the correction which began from the 1297.75 level on August 4 should ended yesterday at 1262.50 which will also be support for the next few days. The next development will be a rally to 1309.

September Bonds: The 108-04 level is support and I think the bonds are about to rally to 110.

September 10 Year Notes: Support is at 105-28 and the next development will be a rally to 107-16.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is still at 129.20 and the next development should be a drop below 123.00.  

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen will hold 114.30 support. The next development will be a rally to 120.00. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

September Crude: Downside target is 68.00 and resistance above the market is at 76.60.

December Gold: I now think that gold will not rally above its July high and instead will stall below 670 and begin an extended drop.

September Silver: I think silver will hold below resistance near 1270 and begin a move to below 900.  

Google:  Support is at 364 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

September T-bond Futures

T-bonds

Here is an hourly chart showing regular hours trading in the September T-bond futures. I last commented on this market here.

I think the reactions which I thought would end near 108-04 ended today at 108-08. It has a clear three phase structure and was only 4 ticks shorter than the previous reaction from 107-25 to 106-09.

The market should now rally to 110-00 and eventually at least to 110-16 before any substantial break develops.

Is That Dog Barking?

One of the most useful clues to a market's underlying strength or weakness is its response to unexpected news. A market that doesn't drop in response to a piece of unexpected bearish news is headed higher. A market that fails to rally in response to unexpected bullish news is headed lower. I like to call this the "Dog That Didn't Bark" phenomenon.

This morning police in the UK broke up a terrorist plot aimed at airline travelers to the USA that was just hours from being carried out. This news spooked European stock markets and led to a lower open in the US stock market. I would have expected gold and silver to rally on the news, bonds to rally on the flight to safety, and oil to rally on increased fears about the Mideast supply when terrorists are active.

Instead, we saw stocks rally from the open in the US, gold and silver drop, bonds drop, and oil drop. That dog didn't bark! So I take this response to unexpected news as more evidence that stock prices in the US are headed higher along with bond price, and that gold, silver, oil are all headed lower.

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the September S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this chart yesterday afternoon.

In electronic trading early this morning before the pit opening the market dropped to 1262.50 after news of the terror plot against airline travelers to the US from England. Resistance above the market is at 1272 and a close above that level today will mean that the move to 1309 and higher has begun. Meantime I am willing to guess that the market will drop one more time to 1263 support before the move to 1309 begins.

Guesstimates on August 10, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: The correction which began from the 1297.75 level on August 4 should end near 1263 support. The next development will be a rally to 1309.

September Bonds: The bonds drop to 108-04 or so.  After that a rally to 110 will begin.

September 10 Year Notes: A drop to support around the 105-28 level is underway.  After this correction is complete I expect a move up to 107-16.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is still at 129.20 and the next development should be a drop below 123.00.  

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen will hold 114.30 support. The next development will be a rally to 120.00. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

September Crude: Downside target is 68.00 and resistance above the market is at 76.60.

December Gold: I now think that gold will not rally above its July high and instead will stall below 670 and begin an extended drop.

September Silver: I think silver will hold below resistance near 1270 and begin a move to below 900.  

Google:  Support is at 364 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the September S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this chart yesterday.

As you can see the market rallied from 1272 support late yesterday and early today, getting as high as 1288.25. The subsequent break has carried it back to support and the drop from 1288 now looks like the third phase of a three phase correction. My best guess is that the correction will end near the 1263 level.

The second chart you see above this post shows the daily count of the number of issues which advance on the New York Stock Exchange (black line) and the 10 day moving average of this number (red line). I last commented on this indicator here.

You can see that the daily count of the number of advancing issues has moved up both yesterday and today (so far) despite the reactionary tendency in the S&P both days. Morover, the 10 day moving average appears ready to establish its third consecutive higher low. I think this is a hint that higher prices lay ahead. I think the market will rally to 1309 once it established a low near 1263.

Guesstimates on August 9, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: A rally to 1309 is underway. The market should hold support near 1272.

September Bonds: The bonds broke below 108-28 support this morning and this means the market will drop further to 108-04 or so.  After that a rally to 110 will begin.

September 10 Year Notes: A drop to support around the 105-28 level is underway.  After this correction is complete I expect a move up to 107-16.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is at 129.20 and the next development should be a drop below 123.00.  

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen will hold 114.30 support. The next development will be a rally to 120.00. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

September Crude: Downside target is 68.00 and resistance above the market is at 76.60.

December Gold: I now think that gold will not rally above its July high and instead will stall below 670 and begin an extended drop.

September Silver: I think silver will hold below resistance near 1270 and begin a move to below 900.  

Google:  Support is at 364 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the September S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this chart here.

This afternoon the Fed announced that it would not increase the federal funds rate at this time and after an initial rally the market dropped as low as 1273.50. I think the reaction from 1297.75 ended at this level where it would almost exactly equal the length of the last reaction from 1270 to 1244. The market will now rally to its next resistance which I now calculate at 1309.

Guesstimates on August 8, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: The market should hold support near 1272 and then rally into the 1310-15 range.

September Bonds: The bonds should hold support near 108-28 and then move up to the next short term target at 109-24. The market is in the midst of a bigger rally into the 110-111 zone.  

September 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold support near 106-08 and then rally too 106-28 before another reaction sets in . The market’s next stop after that will be 107-20.

Euro-US Dollar: The market should now begin a drop to below the 123.00 level.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen will hold 114.30 support. The next development will be a rally to 120.00. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

September Crude: Downside target is 68.00 and resistance above the market is at 76.60.

December Gold: I now think that gold will not rally above its July high and instead will stall below 670 and begin an extended drop.

September Silver: I think silver will hold below resistance near 1270 and begin a move to below 900.  

Google:  Support is at 364 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

Guesstimates on August 7, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: The market broke should hold support near 1272 and then rally into the 1310-15 range.

September Bonds: The bonds should hold support near 108-28 and then move up to the next short term target at 109-24. The market is in the midst of a bigger rally into the 110-111 zone.  

September 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold support near 106-08 and then rally too 106-28 before another reaction sets in . The market’s next stop after that will be 107-20.

Euro-US Dollar: The market should now begin a drop to below the 123.00 level.

Dollar-Yen: I still think the yen will hold 114.30 support. The next development will be a rally to 120.00. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

September Crude: Downside target is 68.00 and resistance above the market is at 76.60.

December Gold: I now think that gold will not rally above its July high and instead will stall below 670 and begin an extended drop.

September Silver: I think silver will hold below resistance near 1270 and begin a move to below 900.  

Google:  Support is at 364 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

S&P

Here is an hourly chart of the September S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this chart here.

In this morning's guesstimate I said that I thought the market would exceed my original 1296 target and make it up to 1299 before breaking 10-20 points. In the event the high tick so far has been 1297.75 and the market afterward has dropped as low as 1280.50.

The reaction so far has been almost exactly as big as the reaction earlier this week from 1286 to 1270.25 so I think it is reasonable to expect a bounce upward to 1288 or so.

This bounce should be the second, upward phase of a three phase correction which I think will end near 1272 early next week. A drop from 1298 to 1272 would be a drop almost equal to the drop on July 20-21 from 1269 to 1243.50.

Once this brief corrective phase is complete I expect to see the market rally into the 1315-20 zone. I also think that by the end of the year we shall see the S&P's trading near 1420.

Guesstimates on August 4, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: The market broke out of its 1270-88 trading range this morning on the employment number. It will probably rally to 1299, a little above my original 1296 target and then have another 10-20 reaction.

September Bonds: The bonds broke resistance at 108-20 on the employment number and will move up to 109-20 before another reaction sets in. The market is in the midst of a bigger rally into the 110-111 zone.  

September 10 Year Notes: The notes should rally to 106-28 before another reaction sets in . The market’s next stop after that will be 107-20.

Euro-US Dollar: The market through resistance at 128.30 this morning on the employment number. It should halt near 128.80 and then begin a drop to below 123.00.  

Dollar-Yen: I still think the yen will hold 114.30 support. The next development will be a rally to 120.00. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

September Crude: Downside target is 68.00 and resistance above the market is at 75.90.

December Gold: Gold should reach the 700 level before a swing to below 500 begins.

September Silver: I now think silver will rally to 1270 before a swing to below the 900 level starts.

Google:  Support is at 364 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

Guesstimates on August 3, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: The market appears to be stuck in a 1270-1288 trading range. Support is at 1273 and the next upside target is 1296.  

September Bonds: Resistance is at 108-20 and support at 107-24. The market is in the midst of a bigger rally to 110.  

September 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 106-04 and support at 105-18.  The notes are headed for 107.  

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is 128.30 The market will soon begin a drop to below 123.00.

Dollar-Yen: The yen should hold 114.30 support. The next development will be a rally to 120.00. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

September Crude: Downside target is 68.00 and resistance above the market is at 75.90.

December Gold: Gold should reach the 700 level before a swing to below 500 begins.

September Silver: I now think silver will rally to 1270 before a swing to below the 900 level starts.

Google:  Support is at 364 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

December Gold

Gold

Here is a daily chart of December gold futures. I last commented on this market here.

I've changed my mind about 662 as resistance for the move up from the July 24 low at 615. I now think that this market, like silver, is in the third phase of a three phase correction which began from the 547 level (August contract) on June 14. I now think that this third phase will end near 700.

Once the rally is complete I expect gold to drop below 500.