Friday, September 03, 2010

Guesstimates on September 3, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1092-1108. The ES is headed for 1140 and higher

QQQQ: Headed for 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke decisively below its 85.50 support. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


Nav said...


Edwin said...

Today will be the second gap-up day in a week which is indicative of =intense (buy) sentiment.

The inverted H&S coincides with Bulkowski's Adam and Eve double bottom which is also under development. The confirmation is at 1,130.

My plan is to buy dips.

Do your own diligence.

Politiskt Inkorrekt said...

This market is trying to make traders exhausted. up and down, up and down around 1050-1100.

I guess when the weak hands give up, we can have a sustainable rally to 1200-1250

Edwin said...

VIX (Volatility) crashes below the April-August trend-line.

It is safe (but with a watchful eye)to take off your seat belt and crash helmet.

Nav said...

Grateful to Edwin, for sharing your
valuable insight,especially restraining blog readers from going short yesterday.
In my opinion 1110 will be key level to watch,I am not seeing a lot of profit taking/fresh shorts heading into the weekend despite the robust rally of the last few sessions.
If anything there is a little bit of chasing occurring as the move this week (SP500 up ~3.2% WTD as of 11:20am on Fri) caught many people by surprise and it doesn’t seem like equity exposures are where most would like; the pain trade remains for further upside.
Very thankful to you Carl,for so much teachings and controlling us from going disastrously wrong in trades.

Unknown said...

Some stock charts for your consideration:


Edwin said...


My TA work keeps me emotionally objective.

Folks, enjoy the long weekend and just SIT TIGHT if you are on the winning side.

PS. John Murphy who I respect as a TA guru says it is time to buy.

Please do your own homework.

Edwin said...

The Extreme Point Rule triggers another buy signal at the close since SPX closes above August 18th's high of 1,100.