Monday, March 12, 2012

Guesstimates on March 12, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate in the June contract is 1361-1371. The price action of the last three days now looks to me like the kick off phase of a bigger rally which should take the ES to 1415 or so.

QQQ: Next upside target is 66.25. .

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has bounced twice off of 1.3485, just shy of my 1.3540 target. My best guess is that the rally from 1.2623 is nearly over.

Dollar-Yen: I have changed my view on the yen. It has started to accept prices above the 81.00 level. I now think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

April Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold should find support near 1680. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 32.50 level is support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: AAPL is trading between 545 resistance and 518 support. Next upside target is 575.


PRB said...

Looks like we are toping off at point 19

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
I don't want to call XOM as a proxy for the index's yet it is worth a look at. from its bear market low in july 2010. it is possible to count a 3 peaks domed house pattern . points 3 4 5 6 7 was from feb 2011 to july 2011 a little short in duration yet fairly clean . point 8 9 10 not perfect yet again they are there 11 and 12 easy to see yet 13 and 14 could be oct nov 2011 and point 15 can be counted as jan 2012 ( not perfect yet ? ) if so pts 16 17 18 19 and 20 can also be counted as in place assuming the lows Friday and today hold .
bottom line i have to have a bullish bias on xom with 84.05 as my stop . a strong thrust up would give me some confidence that we are indeed heading towards point 21 .
any thoughts ?