Thursday, March 15, 2012

Guesstimates on March 15, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1384-1397. The rally from the March 6 low should continue to 1415 with normal interruptions along the way.

QQQ: Next upside target is 66.25 has been reached. Support is now at 63.50 and the next upside target is 69.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): Yesterday the 10 year yield broke out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. If so it is telling us that the US economy is about to experience higher growth rates than currently expected. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend of the euro is now downward. Over the next few months I expect to see the market drop below 1.2600. Right now support is at 129.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold broke support at 1680 and will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Overnight AAPL has traded as high as 599, just shy of the 605 resistance level. The market's upside run during the past three days has been extreme and I think AAPL will now trade sideways for a while. Support is now at 575.

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