Friday, March 02, 2012

Guesstimates on March 2, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1368-1377. The rally from the November 25 low has now matched the size of the October 2011 rally and has also carried the market to its May 2011 top. So I think it is likely that the market's advance will pause near this resistance. A drop of 50-70 points is likely. But even so I expect the market to move well above the1400 level over the next few months.

QQQ: Resistance stands in the 63-65 zone and a break to 59.50 will probably be the next development.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has bounced twice off of 1.3485, just shy of my 1.3540 target. My best guess is that the rally from 1.2623 is nearly over.

Dollar-Yen: I am switching my views on the yen. It has started to accept prices above the 81.00 level. I now think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold should find support near 1680 after yesterday's $90 break. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: AAPL reached 545 resistance yesterday. I think it will stall here temporarily. Support is at 518.


Nav said...

The S&P may have been flat this week but the
R2K fell nearly 3%. Since the start of Feb, the S&P is up ~55 pts (as of Fri afternoon) but a
full 9.3 of them are from AAPL alone (17%). In fact, a handful of super-cap tech stocks
(AAPL, MSFT, GOOG) and banks (JPM, C, BAC, WFC) have driven 30% of the S&P rally since the beginning of Feb. Important groups are stalling out and not participating in the rally
– the semis (SOX) and industrials (S5INDU) have been flat since the start of Feb while the
Transports are down over the same period.

Stocks lately have adopted a much different attitude - they have more than moved on from the H2:11
trend/pattern of crisis, rescue, crisis, rescue, etc. Instead, helped by massively
accommodative central banks and improved eco data, volatility has fallen and intra-day
action is very quiet and slow. Prices are much less headline sensitive and every tick in the
tape no longer needs a specific headline or event. People appear to still be waiting for
catalysts but a lot of the ―big catalysts‖ lately have wound up being relative non-events from
the perspective of stocks (and prices have continued to grind higher).

Nav said...

Cramer – How the Stock Market is Different This Year – “Bad news just doesn’t seem to
create much of a ripple in the market today. There will likely be more bad news ahead, but
Cramer thinks the market will likely continue to brush it off” (CNBC
we all are seeing it happening though..
Stop waiting for the eurozone collapse – “Many investors were waiting for the immediate
demise of the euro zone for two years and now have difficulties turning around emotionally,
intellectually and also financially,” CNBC
Things are Amazing& Worlsd is beautiful :).