Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Guesstimates on March 27, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1407-1421. I think yesterday's rally represented a break above resistance. The next level to watch is the May 2007 top at 1442. I expect the ES to reach that level in the next week or two.

QQQ: Next upside target is 69.10. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: Yesterday the Euro spent most of its session trading above resistance at 1.3300. I think the market will soon move back down below there, but if I am wrong the next stop on the upside will be 1.3570.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support is at 635.

Apple: Resistance is at 605 and support at 575. The market's recent upside run was extreme and AAPL will now trade sideways for a while.

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