Friday, March 09, 2012

Guesstimates on March 9, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate in the June contract is 1360-1371. The rally from the November 25 low matched the size of the October 2011 rally and also carried the market to its May 2011 top. A drop of 50-70 points has probably started. But even so I expect the market to move well above the1400 level over the next few months.

QQQ: Resistance stands in the 63-65 zone and a break to 61.50 will probably be the next development.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has bounced twice off of 1.3485, just shy of my 1.3540 target. My best guess is that the rally from 1.2623 is nearly over.

Dollar-Yen: I have changed my view on the yen. It has started to accept prices above the 81.00 level. I now think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

April Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold should find support near 1680. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 32.50 level is support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: AAPL is trading between 545 resistance and 518 support. Next upside target is 575.


Graph1159 said...

Hi Carl,
I agree that a correction is on the horizon; however, since the last couple of reactions (November and December) were downward zigzags, Elliott Wave suggests that this one will be a flat or triangle instead. But the short term direction is very hard to predict these days.

Graph1159 said...

Sorry, delete my last comment. I did not realize that the same message went through successfully yesterday.