Friday, March 30, 2012

Guesstimates on March 30, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1400-1413. I think the drop from 1419 is over and that the next development will be a rally to the May 2008 top at 1442.

QQQ: Next upside target is 69.10. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro is still straddling resistance at 1.3300. If it moves decisively above that level I think it will continue up to 1.3570 but right now the market has shown no preference for either side of that resistance level. In either case I think the Euro will soon head much lower. Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support is at 635.

Apple: Resistance is now at 632. and support at 590.


Bill said...

We'll have another 3 or 4 weeks of more sideways trading in the 1390 1420 range before a rally can take off.

Based on the Mclellan Summation Index oscillator, although we are not as overbought as we were in February, we are still overbought. I'd say give it a nother couple of months and we'll have a huge rally, but the market still needs to work off its overbought condition with sideways trading.

Win said...

Carl, I think a little more downside needed, perhaps bottom around 1370, before we take off.

Nav said...

The rally’s support pillars have been shaken but not broken --the S&P
hasn’t done a whole lot since Mon Mar 19 (the day of the now infamous BHP--leveling off
China demand remark) and really the last--major move came back on Tues Mar 13 (when
the US banks unexpectedly released the results of their stress tests). The 500 may have ended
Mar up more than 3% but the last two weeks has been characterized by flattish trading, light
volumes, and no convictions. The rally has rested on three key pillars over the last several
months: 1▆ Europe’s sovereign crisis abating; 2▆ improving growth expectations; 3▆ very
accommodative monetary policy. Lately, this foundation has been shaken a bit (but not
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