Friday, March 23, 2012

Guesstimates on March 23, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1385-1394. The rally from the March 6 low has reached resistance in the1405-15 range. I now expect a trading range with a low near 1375 to form. The advancing issues oscillators are showing some important divergences so a drop of at least 70 points is likely to begin within the next couple of weeks.

QQQ: Next upside target is 66.25 has been reached. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend of the euro is now downward. Over the next few months I expect to see the market drop below 1.2600. Right now support is at 129.50. Resistance above the market is at 1.3300

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Resistance is at 605 and support at 575. The market's recent upside run was extreme and AAPL will now trade sideways for a while.

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