Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Guesstimates on March 14, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1382-1396. The rally from the March 6 low should continue to 1415 with normal interruptions along the way.

QQQ: Next upside target is 66.25 has been reached. Support is now at 63.50 and the next upside target is 69.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend of the euro is now downward. Over the next few months I expect to see the market drop below 1.2600. Right now support is at 129.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold broke support at 1680 and will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Overnight AAPL reached resistance at 575. I expect a stall here and probably a drop to 545. After that the next upside target will be 605.

1 comment:

Nav said...

S+P 500 Sentiment gauges:
1)Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) (Mar 13): 78% bulls,
(73% 5 day avg, 71% 10 day avg). Semi-overbought, and
heading higher. Tops have been above 85% bulls over
the last three years. Bottomed at a 17% bulls 10 day
avg oversold extreme in late-Dec.
2)Investors Intelligence readings (Mar 13): 43.6%
bulls (vs 47.9%), 26.6% bears (vs 26.6%), 29.8%
correction. Decent drop is positive. Continues decline
from the 54.8% bulls reading on Feb 14. That was the
highest since May 2 ‘11. Last year’s high was 57.3% on
Apr 5. Historical danger zone is 56-62% bulls.
3)American Association Of Individual Investors
(AAII) (Mar 8): 42.4% bulls (vs 44.5%), 29% bears (vs
26.8%). Neutral. Peaked at 52.3% bulls on Jan 11.
Bottomed last year at 21% bulls in July & Aug. March
‘09 troughed at 18.9% bulls.
Respect you Sir!