Tuesday, January 03, 2006

Guesstimates on January 3 , 8:50 am ET

March S&P Futures:  The S&P’s are now headed for 1243 (a bit lower than the 1246 level I cited late yesterday). I think the market will rally from there to 1298.

March Bonds: The bonds dropped to support at 113-28 this morning. It looks like the market will head a bit lower to 113-16 before rallying back above 115. I expect a rally into the 115-116 zone before the bear market resumes.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes dropped to support at 109-08 this morning but I think they will move a bit lower to 108-28 before turning higher. The notes will move into the 111-112 zone before the bear market resumes.

March Eurocurrency: I think Friday’s low at 118.25 will hold and that the market will now move up to 122.30.  

February Crude: Crude is near initial resistance at 62.00 but I don’t think we will see more than a 2 dollar reaction from there. The 64.30 level should be reached soon. I expect crude to trade in a range of $54 to $64 for several months before going much lower.

February Gold: I think my Friday guess of 533 for the rally high was a bit optimistic. Today I think resistance is at 525 and from there gold will drop back below 490. I think that the 544.90 high will hold for at least several months.

March Silver: I think my 920 target for silver was a bit optimistic. Today resistance is at  913.  From there silver will drop below 800. The high at 934.5 (electronic) will hold for at least several months.

Google: GOOG reached 415 support Friday. I think a move above 450 is now in the cards. The next upside target is 490.  

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