Monday, July 17, 2006

Guesstimates on July 17, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: The S&P’s should hold the 1232 level today and the next development will be a rally at least to 1251 but more probably into the 1260-70 range. After that rally the odds will then favor a drop to 1224.

September Bonds: Resistance is again at 107-26 today and from there I think the market will drop to106-20. The market is headed for the 110 level.  

September 10 Year Notes: Resistance today is at 105-20 and from there the notes should drop to support near 104-20.  The market is headed for 107.  

Euro-US Dollar: The market broke below 126.40 decisively this morning so I conclude that it is headed for 123.00 and eventually much lower than that.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 118.00. I still think the yen will reach the 130 level over the next year.

August Crude: The market is headed for the 79.00-80.00 zone.

August Gold: Gold reached 677 overnight, three dollars shy of the 680 target. Both gold and silver are struggling in the face of what should be bullish war news and this makes me think the next big move from here will be downward.  

September Silver: Resistance is still at 1200 but the market made several attempts at that level on war news and couldn’t make it. I think the next big move from here will be downward.  

Google:  Support is at 394 and I think GOOG will soon move above its last high at 455.

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