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Friday, September 26, 2008
Out
I sold my one unit long at 1197.50 because the market broke back below the 1200 level and showed increasing volume on the break. I'm now flat and scratching my head.
19 comments:
Anonymous
said...
This is a news driven market. It goes up when a congressman starts to speak; goes down when they are done speaking. Just fade every move either up or down with tight stops.
Today's volatility appears to be primarily news and rumor driven--politicians speak and the market makes a short-term move. It seems very difficult to make a trend bet in this environment, because the next press conference can immediately alter the picture.
Time to look at alternative scenarios. We're not breaking higher (I am still long) and we are not breaking lower. Looking more like we'll have a repeat of Wednesday's market. Expect to see marginal new high and low but a close not far from current levels.
The only reason I'll bias to the long side is that the market has shown the inability to break too far on bad news but the pops are a lot stronger on good news.
Looks like National City Bank will enter the history books this weekend. Sad, I was born and raised in Cleveland.
Curious that WAMU was closed on a weekday, and now NCC may go under this weekend. Both these banks were going to fail eventually. I can't help but wonder if Paulson isn't sending in his boys to get these banks closed now to lend urgency to his bailout program. Should be an interesting day on Monday.
I was interested in whether you would go long over the weekend - but I guess you trade futures so you can get long even on Sunday. I am all out -- trying to enforce some trading discipline.
Don't you guys find it interesting that the entire market is waiting for that single piece of news to go crazy? How long do you think we will pop if we get it? And what happens after the pop?
19 comments:
This is a news driven market. It goes up when a congressman starts to speak; goes down when they are done speaking. Just fade every move either up or down with tight stops.
Today's volatility appears to be primarily news and rumor driven--politicians speak and the market makes a short-term move. It seems very difficult to make a trend bet in this environment, because the next press conference can immediately alter the picture.
Time to look at alternative scenarios. We're not breaking higher (I am still long) and we are not breaking lower. Looking more like we'll have a repeat of Wednesday's market. Expect to see marginal new high and low but a close not far from current levels.
The only reason I'll bias to the long side is that the market has shown the inability to break too far on bad news but the pops are a lot stronger on good news.
EDS
The market will close sharply higher today and continue rising into Monday.
"Doc"
Will add to my long position at 1193 if we get down there
EDS
Looks like National City Bank will enter the history books this weekend. Sad, I was born and raised in Cleveland.
Curious that WAMU was closed on a weekday, and now NCC may go under this weekend. Both these banks were going to fail eventually. I can't help but wonder if Paulson isn't sending in his boys to get these banks closed now to lend urgency to his bailout program. Should be an interesting day on Monday.
spf5
Obviously didn't get filled at 1193....
Looks like we're going back up so bit the bullet and added to position at 1198.
Generally don't like chasing moves, so not feeling 100% sure about this add -may have to take some heat -we'll see
EDS
Hope you got some to scratch -hair that is-I'm headed to the Vapor
Caves-next week should bring us some tradeable ocillations
That's quite a battle going on either side of 1200. Seems to have taken a "line in the sand" significance ahead of the weekend.
I know it's the July low but we've been through it (up and down) so many times now.
Out of half position at 1202 on failure to get to earlier high
EDS
Will keep remaining 50% position as long as we don't trade below 1298/9. We shouldn't dip that low if this is to be a bull move.
Usually I would trail my stop higher but I think we'll have some noisy trade this afternoon and don't want to get caught.
eds
Against my better judgement I'm exiting balance of position at 1210.
Will look to re-enter on dips.
EDS
Have a bid at 1204 to get long again
EDS
Missed the entry. Mkt coming back down. Moved bid down to 1203. Stop below 1193.
Wide stop, but small position
EDS
Carl,
Just wondering what time frame you use to determine increase/decrease of volume on breakouts?
Thanks,
Carlos
Traded at 1203, but not filled. urrrgh! Timing, rhythm sees off this sunny Friday afternoon. Calling it a day.
Thanks for blog (forum?) Carl and sorry for monoplozing the real estate again.
EDS
So far, so good!
"Doc"
Carl,
I was interested in whether you would go long over the weekend - but I guess you trade futures so you can get long even on Sunday. I am all out -- trying to enforce some trading discipline.
Don't you guys find it interesting that the entire market is waiting for that single piece of news to go crazy? How long do you think we will pop if we get it? And what happens after the pop?
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