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Monday, September 15, 2008
Short
I just shorted one unit of the e-minis at 1220.75. I am expecting a drop below 1200 today, but strength above the 1230 level will change my mind about this.
Many people were waiting for the VIX to get above 30. This has happened this morning. The VIX has gone over 30 intra-day. This also happened back at the January, March and July lows. There is also a record amount of cash is on the sideline waiting to be put into stocks. While we may go lower to the 1175 area sometime later on, I believe we that have already seen the lows for the day.
Boy, that's a tough one. Shorting a 40-point (or so) gap down on a rally of 5 points (or so). You may well turn out to be right on this one...but the "balloon" is sure a long ways underwater and any sort of impetus (some new news out of the Feds) and that balloon could pop back up to the surface (close the opening gap). Interesting that XLE (Energy) is down more than XLF (Financials) today. Bonds support your view, though, hanging up at new highs.
3 comments:
Take care. Not looking good...
Alex
Many people were waiting for the VIX to get above 30. This has happened this morning. The VIX has gone over 30 intra-day. This also happened back at the January, March and July lows. There is also a record amount of cash is on the sideline waiting to be put into stocks. While we may go lower to the 1175 area sometime later on, I believe we that have already seen the lows for the day.
Boy, that's a tough one. Shorting a 40-point (or so) gap down on a rally of 5 points (or so). You may well turn out to be right on this one...but the "balloon" is sure a long ways underwater and any sort of impetus (some new news out of the Feds) and that balloon could pop back up to the surface (close the opening gap).
Interesting that XLE (Energy) is down more than XLF (Financials) today.
Bonds support your view, though, hanging up at new highs.
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