Friday, September 05, 2008
Up to 1250, Then Down
During the past hour or so the e-minis have rallied on what I interpret as increasing volume. This is the first time this week such a rally has developed. I think it means that the futures are headed up to 1250 where I think they will be a sale. If I am reading this correctly today's low at 1216.50 will be the low for the next couple of days.
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18 comments:
I think ES will see 1313+ before seeing < 1216.5;
We shall see.
Hi Carl,
Technical market timing is merely a windsock and not a crystal ball. With that in mind, my timing model tells me that if we reach 1141.90 (give or take a few ticks) and especially on or about October 16th, then we should see serious buying enter the market at that price. This is not a prediction of where the market is going, I personally have no clue, I merely follow my work, and we did have that confirmed sell signal last week as I mentioned to you. So now, IF AND ONLY IF we trade at 1141.90 at any time and especially on or about October 16th, then a very solid rally should commence from that price and time. The closer to that date, the more reliable that rally will be.
Many thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
Hi Carl
What is the best brokerage for trading E Minis?
Thanks.
Carl,
Are you expecting 1150 today?
David
I think you mean 1250. I think 1250 is more likely to be reached Monday than today.
Carl,
What are your thoughts on the after hours bounce in the markets? SPY made it up to $126.20 thus far.
Looks like the speculated bailout of fannie and freddie may be in the works for this weekend.
Do you see a continued bounce or is this it?
Carl, 1260 has been reached AH now... so you still think we going break 1200...??
Sell short? are you crazy? Treasuries are rallying way past your stated resistance and interest rates fall everyday!! Also a bailout of Fannie and Freddie is being announced this weekend. Market headed to 1650 on S&P. Keep buying stocks and treasuries! More bailouts coming!
listen to all these nuts believing a 1260 print after hours. And this guy who is misinformed about treasuries and interest rates.When interest have falling past years like 2000 to 2002 the markets falls with them.And who cares about treasuries. And the Fannie and freddie bit really gives me a chuckle. Stock holders will be left holding the bag they always do.For once carl is right and listen to all these people doubting him.
Hi PM,
My cycle work is agreeing with your early October bottom. The 13 month nominal cycle is due there and should mark the 2-year low as well. If it is a bottom then a good 1.5 - 2 month rally should ensue right into the election. Nice timing huh? In the mean time the next 4-5 weeks are going to be trying for the long investors according to my analysis. GoodLuck to all. I am short and holding short but will start accumulating after a few weeks.
Jeremy
Carl,
As you probably know, the dollar rally makes it very attractive for Europeans and Asians to invest in U.S. Equities. If I were in London and able to trade the $SPY, I would have a huge cushion. For instance, U.S. equities could take a 10% haircut and if the dollar rallied 10% (as it has), I would be even. I think bears should be mindful of this, as they make future plans.
Institutional investors have been in protest of the Treasury Department. They refuse to provide liquidity to fixed income markets and have been very public about it. the basis in CDS to Cash IG space became very negative. the FED sees this and the big institutions usually take advantage of this spread by leveraging up and forcing the basis back via arbitrage. this has not happened all summer, it signaled worsening credit conditions but in reality it was investors protesting the markets. The treasury was forced to act by the market. I don't know why they insisted on this but now that they got their way.... we'll see if they decide to participate. equity markets have a mind of their own. that being said... fixed income and equities are related in valuation models... equities are cheap but credit markets are cheaper... we need to see IG (investment grade) spreads narrow then the equity markets can bottom and move higher.
Quote from a previous post:
"listen to all these nuts believing a 1260 print after hours".
What do you mean by this statement? The S&P 500 SPDR's in after-hours were up to 126.40 at one point. They closed at 125.87. Up about 1.5% in after hours. In the absence of any bad news on Monday, the market should see a nice gain. Maybe even for a few days.
As far as the stockholders of Freddie and Fannie, it is not clear what will happen to the shares. Some believe that the preferred shares will be protected. And even the common shares may just be diluted. We will have to wait and see what the details are.
And by the way, people who buy stocks take that risk. They were not forced to buy and hold on to these stocks. They are not "left holding the bag" as was stated.
Being away this week and not being able to read Carl's blog, I was ready, today, to tell Carl to go to commit suicide so he could go up there as he wished it and deserved it so much.
Nope! - here is the great and mighty Carl ready to join us and go down.
Carl is a Trader with a big T.
FNM FRE Bailout...woo hoo....
Were headed to 1340 then to new highs.....
Thank god for .GOV
WOO HOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
Ken Fisher eventually admit that he is wrong to be bullish for so long in this issue Forbe. One thing mis-led him is that bears came first instead of bull first in the top of the market, compared to 2000 and earlier bull market top in his 35 years' career.
carl
this next week should be interesting to say the least .
i think it is now universal that everyone is convinced this mkt is going much much lower . and yet
they keep on buying . so people sayingone thing and then doing another .
joe
1700 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
HERE WE COME!! THIS IS AN EVENT OF BIBLICAL PROPORTIONS. THE BULL IS BACK AND DA BEARS ARE SLAUGHTERED!!
YEA BABY.
jinko
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