Thursday, February 26, 2009

Guesstimates on February 26, 2009

March S&P  E-mini Futures: I again expect the market to hold support at 762 today and then head higher. I think this market is about to begin the biggest rally seen in the last 9 months.

QQQ: The Q’s will start a move to 35.00. 

March Bonds: The bonds have dropped into the 126-27 target zone. The next big move in this market should be upward to 135. Any significant weakness below 125 will mean that a bear market is underway.   

March 10 Year Notes: The notes have yet to reach our 120 target. We think a substantial rally to 128 is imminent, but weakness below 120 would mean that a bear market is underway.   

Euro-US Dollar: The euro is headed down to 122.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think a rally to 100.00 is underway. 

April Crude: The 30-35 zone is long term support. I think the market will start stabilizing. The next big move should be a rally to 50.

GLD – April Gold: Gold is now headed for 1100. Support is at 940.

 SLV - March Silver: I now think silver is headed for 1750.

Google: Resistance stands at 375. I think that its drop from 747 is over. 

4 comments:

Unknown said...

With Gold down three day in a row, are you still comfortable that it's headed higher as is silver?

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

February is 89 months from the 2001 low, and 76 from the 2002 low. And as George on another blog notes, the DOW has dropped very close to 1/2 of the value it had at the top. In 2002, the DOW dropped to about 62% of its 2000 top value.

Anonymous said...

Hello Carl, some noteworthy Institutional remarks: One Institutional Investor commented that the market is "very oversold and that a huge amount of money is sitting on the sidelines". "If that kicks in, it would shoot the market to the upside." He didn't want to miss that run because he thought it could be close by.
At the same time, he was convinced that the "son of TARP" will make an appearance this year. "What's puzzling", he said, is that "a large number of other Institutions and Wall Street Firms remain convinced the economy will show an improvement in the third quarter". He had his doubts and additionally commented that they were running calculations on "credit card debt" default projections into the end of this year because that could be the next shoe to drop.

cheers
Susn

Anonymous said...

By "rally" you mean crash, right?

Rick B.