Here is the updated wave chart for the e-minis. The latest upwave has broken above the 770 level but volume so far has been unimpressive (horizontal red line). At the 774 level the rally from yesterday's low equals the length of the rally from Friday's low to Monday's early morning high.Normally the lack of volume in this situation would be a worry. On the other hand today as retraced virtually all of yesterday's one-way drop via a one-way rally. I am inclined to believe that even though the move upward has been a quiet one this is nonetheless the start of a more extended up move. If I am right about this the 762 level should be support from this point forward.
6 comments:
Thank's Carl.
My 2 cents:
we can see 815 before the end of the week (VIX broke MA50 today..and is not so far from the TL it seems very hard to maintain 50 level..)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/valeriobr/3307645002/
carl
just posting this for others to consider ( joe )
Has anybody else noticed the proposed bill titled, "Let Wall Street Pay for Wall Street’s Bailout Act of 2009". Its a potential tax on every stock, option or futures trade. Please let this be a joke. Wall Street won't pay for this; we will. Here's one link tracking the bill and another link with a petition to send to your representatives:
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h111-1068
http://www.rallycongress.com/no2tradertax/1536/tell-congres-to-block-trader-tax/
Carl,
Thank you for the broader picture on the lower Closes and for making the point on the lack of buying interest on the upside. Greetings from Germany, Val
Carl:
In all honesty there was nothing 'special' about today ... it was an easy buy, as ES 739 could be used as a stop. Also, after six days of selling, we had an up day, an inside one at that. Now if we had an outside reversal today, that would be stronger for the bullish case. 739 remains short-term support. we're still in a bear market.
Rick B.
Hi Carl,
On 2/19 I posted here that I went short at 792.00. I just covered my short and went long at 763.00 just minutes ago this morning. It appears we may have a reasonable chance for a rally somewhere above 800.00, time will tell.
Yesterday's reversal at the 740ish level was meaningful and since these markets are already waaaaaay oversold, we ought to see a good rally from here.
I am almost willing to suggest that this was the test of the lows and the bull market has begun, but not quite yet. In any case, this is a buying opportunity. If this is an economic disaster that comes "only once in a hundred years," as many say, then this is also an opportunity that comes only once in a hundred years. Unless these markets crash and burn all the way down to zero, these current levels will look very cheap once this crisis is past. It could take another year, it could take another 15 years, but at some point the world is not going to end, there will eventually be some sort of recovery and those who buy in this time frame will definitely be rewarded for their patience.
Yesterday, I bought the agricultural markets and crude oil, this morning the SP's. I'm now hunkered down, and my stops are in place, so damn the torpedoes!!!
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
Dear Rick B.
Hindsight is always 20-20, but we make no money trading the past. Did you make this "easy" long side trade? If you did, why didn't you tell us about it when you put it on so we all could have benefited from your insight?
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