Here is the five minute bar chart of the past two e-mini day sessions. The only thing that stands out to me is the fact that after yesterday's 20 point down gap at the open the market has been relatively quiet while drifting a bit lower.I think that any drop from current levels will stop near 765. I also think that there is a better than even chance that today's low will hold. In either event a high volume move above the green dashed line will be a very bullish indication.
7 comments:
I did notice you are not taking any position..Looks like everyone else is doing the same thing...and after hours its crashing..maybe HPQ screwed up? who knows..just as
DOW 6000 who would have thunk it
today's "low" was taken out after 4pm ...
just a question ... this recent sell-off has been most orderly. Wouldn't a "true" bottom be of a violent/panic/capitulation nature?
The bears are in full control.
Rick B.
Until we have a better understanding of the "fix" to the markets, the Bears will outnumber the Bulls. There's nothing complicated about that. We probably need to blow out the bottom so the fear factor goes away. At some point, we should have some massive short covering and momentum buying. Remember greed is still good.
Vap
Carl,
You are a master of risk management, and I have learned so much discipline from you. But your clearly bullish bias affects your forecasting. Because you go in looking for something, you will find it. I look at the facts you show us with as open a mind as I can, and I deduce ... nothing.
I will position tomorrow for a very short-term bounce, which I plan to short. As always, I will try to keep an open mind for the opposite scenario -- a flexibility I have learned in large part from you.
You don't have to publish this comment.
i believe a low is close, could be lower than Nov low to shake out the weak hands, and then a multi-week relief rally will rein in and to be followed by a devastating drop from the relief high..
Market internals are relatively strong and divergences are positive. A rebound is more likely than a breakdown. As it is, rebounds are much more frequent than breakdowns.
Just like we had a bull trap on a false breakout of the resistance level at 920, to 944, on January 6, based mostly on overnight futures up gap, the current "breakdown", i.e. the breakdown of the symmetrical triangle, based mostly on an overnight down gap, looks like a perfect bear trap.
Shorting the market at this level is very risky. All stops will be hit as the market is positioned for a strong rebound.
We will see a strong rebound of a wave 4C UP, to 1000 or higher.
Out of the four major indexes, Nasdaq is the leader and it is no where near the November low.
Incidentally, I am no bull, as I have only been shorting since February 2008, but not anymore, at least not for a while.
Carl's bullishness, at least at this time, makes sense!
best market blog on the net; thanks you for it. we are headed above spx 1300, methinks and fwiw. funny how that sounds like an extreme forecast, LOL.
regards,
H1
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