Thursday, February 26, 2009

Boxed In

Here is a five minute bar chart for the e-minis last two day sessions. At the moment the market seems trapped in a box defined by the limits of yesterday's late reaction( blue rectangle). I see today's action as only mildly bullish thus far, largely because the e-minis have held above midpoint support defined by yesterday's late reaction (dotted purple line). But volume is very low (red line). This coupled with the fact that the market is at the top of its recent trading range makes me reluctant to back up my bullish views by taking a position. I think good upside volume above 780 would resolve this uncertainty.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks, Carl. That makes a lot of sense. There's large resistance at that 778-782 level. But if we could get through it, I think we could see a significant upside move out of this inverse head and shoulders pattern.

Jeff

Anonymous said...

Carl-

TBT has formed a triangle on the daily and has broken above (TLT has broken down). Also, TIP, LQD, AGG, GLD and SLV are selling off. What implications do you see this having for the market?

Thanks,
Jason

Anonymous said...

SHORT ES from 777 (stop-loss 781)

Rick B.

Sqroot said...

Looks like (hoping) your box will hold today. Inverse H&S on SPX, needs a good clean surge though 775. Target 805.

Anonymous said...

Folks & all bulls..S&P going to 500 soon..Earnings in the early 40's and P/E under 10--500 is more than likely..The next big move could well
be downwards..
DOW 6000 now who would have thunk it

Anonymous said...

stop-loss lowered to 770 on ES short from 777

Rick B.