Friday, February 06, 2009

Guesstimates on February 6, 2009

March S&P  E-mini Futures:  The employment number came in a bit worse than expected this morning but as I write this the e-minis are up 4 points. So far this is positive performance in the face of bad news and as such is more evidence that the short term trend is upward.  The 835 level should be support today and the next upside target is 875-80. I think the market is on its way to 1000.

QQQ: The short term trend is upward and the next upside target is 32.50.

March Bonds: The bonds have dropped into the 126-27 target zone. The next big move in this market should be upward. Any significant weakness below 125 will mean that a bear market is underway.   

March 10 Year Notes: The notes have yet to reach our 120 target. We think a substantial rally is imminent, but weakness below 120 would mean that a bear market is underway.   

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has traded sideways after dropping as low as 127.50.  I think a rally to 137 or so is underway. 

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is underway. 

March Crude: The 50.00 level is resistance and I think March crude will drop down into the 30-35 zone.

GLD – April Gold: The 935 level is resistance. At this juncture a drop below 870 will mean that a move down into the 550-600 range is underway.

SLV - March Silver: Silver has rallied past resistance at 1250 so the next stop will be 1325. I think the next big move will carry this market downward to 650.

Google: Resistance stands at 375. I think that its drop from 747 is over. 

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