Here is the e-mini wave chart at 10:30 am. I bought one unit at the first red arrow thinking that the down wave would be about as long as the previous one and thus would find support at the higher purple dotted line. My plan B was that the market would hold the midpoint of Tuesday's range and the high that preceded Tuesday's big up wave (red dashed line). In the event the market broke below that level and did so on increasing volume. I sold my position at the second red arrow.The picture so far today is of a weak market. Volume on this morning's break was a little higher than at similar times over the past 10 days. The down wave not only was substantially longer than the preceding one but broke below yesterday's midpoint which generally is a sign of weakness also. The only positive thing I see in this chart is that the market so far has held support at the second, lower, purple dotted line which is the midpoint of yesterday's last down wave.
There is one thing that has raised my suspicions about the significance of this morning's break. It started when the existing home sales number came in below expectations. The market has been selling off on bad news very consistently lately, so much so that this "trade" seems to have attracted a big following. If this market can hold the lower of the two dotted lines I think the second half of the day will turn out to be quite bullish.
9 comments:
2R @ 794.50
1R @ 782.75
PIVOT @ 763.00
1S @ 751.50
2S @ 732.00
It is a big range. In other words, be careful of being jerked around!
Why is today a down-trend day?
1] Down gap was not closed.
2] Adv-Decline @ 485-2424
3] VIX reversing from low of 44 and now into an uptrend.
4] TRIN making a horizontal line @ 1.29.
Above all, use Stops!!
funny...i was suspicious of yesterdays rally because it was on the back of Bernanke's speech. Oh, and what a dull one it was!! Did anyone actually read that speech?? it said nothing new but the markets rallied. Its all noise, we are still in a bear market...at least till we aren't ;-)
2R--3R--some stupid floor trading theory which doesnt hold anymore--similar to the box theory proposed here on retracements!..all of you guys are going to be taken out..
There will be some correction between 12:00-1:15 and then a blow out.
Thank's always enjoy your posts along with the posters in this comments section
Dear 11:07 am:
I'll give you credit for one thing. At least you make a prediction about something that you expect to happen later today instead of pretending to have foreseen what has already happened.
But your bad manners normally would have gotten your comment deleted, as would your desire to hide behind a veil of anonymity. Real players usually don't call other players stupid. The market has humbled them too often. So I conclude you are just another talker, typical of those who post negative comments on this site.
Good said CArl !!!!!
Ric
Does he mean blow out to the upside or downside? I agree with you Carl, it takes real balls to post actual predictions (you don't see me doing it!)
Thank you
Carl, I can't figure it out myself. When I do well, the web trolls come posting angry comments and emails.
When I do badly, the web trolls come posting happy comments and emails about my failure.
It feels like trading is more entertainment for many than a business. Maybe it is our reality TV generation.
[nike72]
nice call CF!
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