Here is a 5 minute bar chart of the past two day session's e-mini trading. I am becoming more confident that this morning's low ended the shakeout and that a new up trend has started. Why?First, the market has taken out its earlier high today and moved a tad above that resistance level. Normally, that by itself would not be very significant. But in the process the e-minis have rallied more than they have at any time during the drop from last Friday's high at 838. In particular they have rallied more than they did yesterday (blue rectangles).
The only problem I see for a bullish prognosis right now is the volume of trading - it has dropped steadily on the rally from this morning's low. This is what prevents me from becoming a short term bull right now.
Even so, I think things will start looking even more bullish by the close. In particular I think the market has a shot at establishing a high volume breakout above the key 800 level later today or tomorrow.
3 comments:
The volume is low because the O team is releasing mortgage bailout info.
I appreciate your desire to be bullish. I am getting ready to finally go long as well, but I would be REALLY surprised if we bottomed without moneyflow getting more negative. The only time that we have bottomed without a serious daily moneyflow capitulation was in this last Jan-Feb range bottom episode.
Without the money flow capitulation, the upside will be disappointing. Some big players MUST be forced in to 'can't stand it anymore, get me out' liquidation. That is just not evident yet
I think we are in the process of revisiting Nov lows.
Post a Comment