Here is a thirty minute bar chart of the e-mini days sessions for the past two weeks. This morning I got short near the top of my 770-790 range estimate. I thought we had seen a supply shock (red arrows) in late trading yesterday, even though the volume was in large part end-of-quarter portfolio adjustment. I knew that if the market was really about to break it would not trade as much as 10 points above its open at 781.25. After it traded 11 points higher I covered.In the meantime it looks now like a demand shock (green arrows) developed this morning. Volume during the second thirty minutes of trading was higher than during the same periods during the past two weeks (green lines). This means that the short term trend is indeed upward and that the market should not trade back to 785, the point where the demand shock began.
My new range estimate for today is 779-807.
5 comments:
Hi Carl,
Would you please share with us the program/site you use to generate these charts? It would be very much appreciated.
Thanks
This 2 day rally in the DOW5 is not all that impressive. I'm thinking the SPX needs to retrace back to the 750 range to be healthy going forward.
The WHIPSAW is AMAZING! Like you, I have been thinking we would visit 767 - 770. Monday at midday, I thought we would see it on Monday pm or Tuesday's open. Then we had yesterday - again, this am, it seemed to be a highly likely outcome, but again a quick reversal. There must be something VERY critical about 770 - will it be like 800 was earlier this year? or maybe it is not even 770, but it is 780 - a level we touch many times and bounce off before slicing through on a gap down. It is still early days, but it does seem as if there really is something very important about 770.
Thanks for all your honesty in this whipsaw - I am sadly right there with you.
Carl
This is looking like the market is anticipating bullish news tomorrow on the banking front.
This short squeeze is likely to gain even more traction tomorrow.
As always worth reading Thanks
Post a Comment