hi carl i have been looking at a few things in relation to lindsays time spans in regard to the 12 year 2 month and 12 year 8 month top to bottom count .there is another thought i have on this that maybe lindsay has written about yet is not in his selected articles booklet from investors intelliengce but it will be important in the future. as an example ill try to be brief the oct 2007 high was not the major top , most of the broad market actually peaked in jan march 2000 . taking this analogy there is an argument to be made that from oct 2007 to 2019 - 2020 may not be a hard down decline to new lows . i take the examples of history . 1919 plus a rough 21 years is 1941 ( ill make it exact later ) 1929 plus the 12 yrs 8 months was 1942 ( lows ) march 1937 plus 12 years 3 months was the june 1949 low , yet if we counted from sept 1929 21 yrs ( again rough) you get 1950 . this was when a major bull market launched from .taking the dec 1961 high point and counting 21 yrs ( rough) you get 1983 . in both cases the 21 yr ( rough ) was a higher low then the preceding 12 yr 2 yr to 12yr 8 month cycle .taking jan 2000 or march 24 2000 you come to the year 2021 , 12 yrs 8 months from oct 2007 you get june 2020 .my guess is we go into a very long term bull market begining then and it fits the benner business cycle also . i know this is way out in the futures yet there is some historical information to this . what im getting at is simple we either made the major lows now or will make them in 2011-2012 and then a bull market into 2018 which may or may not make new all time highs and yet then we would head lower in a larger sideways pattern which will have begun in 2000 . overall it would be considered a 20-21 bear market which would be consistant with the 1919 peak to 1942 low the 1961 peak to 1982 low and 2000 to 2020 2021 low ?? you posted a chart once in regards to the history of nations in it you should a graph begining in 1784 and it was your schematic of a grand supercycle . 1835 to 1857 was down ( 22 yrs ) 2000 to 2022 would be 22 years 1784 to 1932 was 73 years 1929 to 2002 was 73 years fibonacci also would fit into this .bottom line we are in a basic advance now and a cyclical bull market i can agree with and i can see a bullish cycle from 2011-2012 into 2018 yet this might just be a move back to the all time highs with more sideways action into 2020-2022 and then we would begin a major buy and hold bull market again . this will be interesting to follow over the coming decade . joe
Carl, it's been an interestig week with plenty of news and words coming out of politicians all over the world. Thank you for the week! And have a good start next week, Val
I remain long from 787.00 as posted here on 4/01/2009 07:07:00 AM. I believe this rally still has legs and should continue to 1074ish, give or take a few ticks. However, we are now becoming near term overbought once again. As this market rallies, we continue to hit and then sell off as we reach the overhead resistance points. My next overhead resistance is placed at 858.20, give or take a few ticks. I expect a sell off at that level only to be followed by a continued rally.
4 comments:
Way to go. Nice trading and excellant calls for today with good educational value as usual.
Thanks a lot,
Ron
hi carl
i have been looking at a few things in relation to lindsays
time spans in regard to the 12 year 2 month and 12 year 8 month top to bottom count .there is another thought i have on this that maybe lindsay has written about yet is not in his selected articles booklet from investors intelliengce but it will be important in the future.
as an example ill try to be brief
the oct 2007 high was not the major top , most of the broad market actually peaked in jan march 2000 . taking this analogy
there is an argument to be made that from oct 2007 to 2019 - 2020
may not be a hard down decline to new lows . i take the examples of
history . 1919 plus a rough 21 years is 1941 ( ill make it exact
later ) 1929 plus the 12 yrs 8 months was 1942 ( lows ) march 1937
plus 12 years 3 months was the june 1949 low , yet if we counted
from sept 1929 21 yrs ( again rough) you get 1950 . this was when a major bull market launched
from .taking the dec 1961 high point and counting 21 yrs ( rough)
you get 1983 . in both cases the 21 yr ( rough ) was a higher low then the preceding 12 yr 2 yr to 12yr 8 month cycle .taking jan 2000
or march 24 2000 you come to the year 2021 , 12 yrs 8 months from oct 2007 you get june 2020 .my guess is we go into a very long term bull market begining then
and it fits the benner business cycle also . i know this is way out in the futures yet there is some historical information to this . what im getting at is simple we either made the major lows now or will make them in 2011-2012 and then a bull market into 2018 which may or may not make new all time highs and yet then we would head lower in a larger sideways pattern which will have begun in 2000 . overall it would be considered a 20-21 bear market
which would be consistant with the 1919 peak to 1942 low the 1961 peak
to 1982 low and 2000 to 2020 2021 low ?? you posted a chart once in regards to the history of nations
in it you should a graph begining in 1784 and it was your schematic of a grand supercycle .
1835 to 1857 was down ( 22 yrs )
2000 to 2022 would be 22 years
1784 to 1932 was 73 years
1929 to 2002 was 73 years
fibonacci also would fit into this .bottom line we are in a basic advance now and a cyclical bull market i can agree with
and i can see a bullish cycle
from 2011-2012 into 2018
yet this might just be a move back to the all time highs with more sideways action into 2020-2022
and then we would begin a major buy and hold bull market again .
this will be interesting to follow over the coming decade .
joe
Carl,
it's been an interestig week with plenty of news and words coming out of politicians all over the world. Thank you for the week! And have a good start next week, Val
Hi Carl,
I remain long from 787.00 as posted here on 4/01/2009 07:07:00 AM. I believe this rally still has legs and should continue to 1074ish, give or take a few ticks. However, we are now becoming near term overbought once again. As this market rallies, we continue to hit and then sell off as we reach the overhead resistance points. My next overhead resistance is placed at 858.20, give or take a few ticks. I expect a sell off at that level only to be followed by a continued rally.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
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