Here is a five minute bar chart of today's e-mini session. I thought midpoint support at 816.50 would hold (dashed purple line). Instead we just had a break below that level on a wide range bar with visibly increasing volume. I am out of my two long units.It now looks like the market will drop to 800 or so before it can begin a rally to 875. I expect to be a buyer near that level tomorrow.
1 comment:
Hi carl
ill keep it simple
from the march lows the dow and sp 500 went up in 5 waves into march 23rd , since march 23rd the market has been in a corrective pattern .
i see the bearish side to this
but my sense is since we are giving up more time then price
it is actually a bullish sign .
there is a somewhat unanumous
consent that the market should pull back further before rising
further , and yet we are not getting the decline . many are waiting to buy into the market
and dont want to miss the move higher .looking at the hourly cash spx , the 815 price level is becoming more and more and important level , i dont see any reason why 815 but the market does for some reason .short term my cycles work has a high due on friday yet the market is closed friday , then a cycle low due
april 22 25th . im not so sure
there going to work . it is rare when i throw my cycles out the window but there is a reason for it on a short term basis .there are larger cycles still pointing higher into june at the earliest .
i am a bit mixed over the day to day short term right now as you can see , but my guess is that we
have been in a consolidation phase since march 23rd , the count from the mid section did nail last thursdays high even if it was only a 60 minute count .the 10 day adv dec line actually turned up today even if very slightly ,i havenot yet plotted my own work on volume and adv dec line yet my guess is
the 815 level is going to hold short term , its a togh call going against my cycles but i have to give credit to the more bullish action . as you once said it is not about what the market does but it is more about what the market fails to do . and since march 23rd
it has essentially failed to give up on price . we will see soon enough .
joe
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