Sunday, August 14, 2005

Bonds and Notes

Above this post you will see hourly charts of the September T-bond and 10 year notes futures updated through Friday's pit close. Both markets have rallied more than a full box from the lows made last Tuesday.

I think this is telling us that both markets have started the big upswing that I have been expecting these past three weeks. I am predicting that the bonds will move into the 121-123 range and the notes to 116. The drop from the early June high took 9 weeks so I think the coming upswing will last at least that long.

There are as yet no convincing price boxes for the new uptrend and in such circumstances I continue to use the existing boxes you see on the charts. I think the bonds will rally to 116-16 or so in the next couple of days and then drop enough to define a new price box. The notes will probably move to 111-16 to 111-20 before reacting.

No comments: