Tuesday, August 02, 2005

Nasdaq Composite Bull Market Boxes

Here is an updated weekly chart of the Nasdaq Composite Index.

I think the market has broken out of an 18 month trading range on the upside. This means that the upside potential from here is very big. The most conservative target I see is the black line which is 1/2 the all time high of 5133 and stands at the 2567 level. A more probable target, given the unusual length of the trading range, is the 1/2 division point of the range of the 2000-2002 bear market. This is the blue line you see on the chart and it stands at the 3121 level.

Some people scoff at these sorts of predictions, arguing that they are "extreme" relative to recent experience. But I think this sort of skepticism reflects a fundamental lack of imagination which often stands in the way of success in speculation. One must cultivate the ability to think "outside the box" by imagining outcomes much different from the current market level and trend. Of course such thinking must be disciplined by historical precedent. This is where my box theory comes in.

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