S&P

Here is an updated hourly chart of the September S&P futures.

The reaction from Wednesday's high around 1248 has been quite a bit deeper than I had anticipated. This is a frequent experience because I find it very difficult to guess correctly just where a one - to - three day reaction against a trend will begin and end. I also observe that those who try to make such guesses usually find themselves on the sidelines when big moves get underway.

In any case I now think the market will not go below the bottom of its current box near 1224. The next upswing will move to the top of the current box near 1268.