Monday, August 22, 2005

Guesstimates on August 22, 8:45 am ET

S&P Futures: I think the market will hold 1217 support and start a rally to 1268.

Bonds: It still looks like the bonds will drop to 115-04 before resuming their rally into the 121-123 zone.

10 Year Notes: I think the notes will drop to 110-16 before the rally resumes.

Eurocurrency: The market will hold supuport at 121.70. The next step up will carry to 125.60.

October Crude: The market moved past the 1/2 point of the current box at 65.30 but I think that was the rally's last gaspand I expect the market to start another down leg today.

Gold: Support is at 444 and the next step up will carry to 463.

Google: 272 is support; the next move up will reach 343.


Anonymous said...

Hi aren't we below your support for gold?

Carl Futia said...

As I write this December gold is trading at 445.

In any event, I think it is a mistake to think the market will stop exactly at support or resistance. In the case of gold, I said support was at 444 but as you can see in my last gold post the bottom of the price box was at 442.50 so there was a zone of ambiguity for this reason alone.

Anonymous said...


I'm sorry, I am using the spot price for gold, obviously you aren't! Which month are you using and what is the premium to the sspot price so that I can understand where you are coming from?


Carl Futia said...

Unless I say otherwise, the charts I post are charts of the most active, "front step", futures contract. In the case of gold this is the December contract on the Comex.