Thursday, August 04, 2005

Tomorrow's Employment Report

At 8:30 am ET tomorrow the employment report comes out. As a speculator with a rather short term view I like to be flat in the bond and note futures when the report comes out. The only exception to this rule occurs when these markets are in the middle of a trend that promises further substantial moves ahead.

Right now the bonds and notes I think are scraping the bottom of the drop from the June 3 high. I am looking for a reversal of this trend, not a continuation. I will be flat going into the number.

It is interesting to observe that the bonds and notes often begin or end substantial moves at the time the employment number comes out. My best guess is that tomorrow the market will show an initial negative reaction to the number but then will rally strongly.


Anonymous said...

What about the stock market?

Carl Futia said...

I think the stock market will go higher after the report too even if there is an initial negative reaction.