Friday, August 26, 2005

Crude Oil

I have been trying to pick the short term top in October crude oil, so far without much success.

Here is an updated hourly chart. Ignore the big spike that appears in the upper part of the chart because is just the result of bad quote transmission.

As you can see the market has been trading around both sides of the 1/2 point of the current box near 67.20 and now is headed for the top of the box near 68.20. Notice that in overnight trading a few days ago the market actually traded briefly at 68.00. I expect a peek above 68.00 and then a big break.

The other thing worth remembering is that crude is very close to the top (blue line) of its second long term box at 70.40. This is one reason (among several) that I am long term bearish on crude.

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