Friday, May 25, 2007

Gold and Silver

Here are weekly charts of the Streettracks Gold Trust and the IShares Silver Trust. If you multiply the price of each of these trusts by 10 you get the current spot price of the associated metal. I last commented on these markets here.

The bull market that began in 1991 in silver from the 35 level and 1999 in gold from the 25 level reached a high point last year at 152 in SLV and 72 in GLD. After a sharp, one month reaction both markets have rallied to approach their 2006 high points.
These charts remind me very much of the price action in the US stock market near the bull market top which occurred in 2000. This is the third chart above this post. Note that the cash S&P made a high at 1552 on March 24 of that year, then broke sharply for about month to 1333, and then rallied in a choppy fashion to make a slightly lower top on September 1 of that year
near the 1530 level.
I think that GLD has begun an extended drop that will carry it to the 48 level and that SLV will drop to 85 or so during that same time. I also believe that gold and silver will evenually make it above their 2006 highs but those new high levels will probably not be reached until 2009-10.


Anonymous said...

Hey Carl, I enjoy your blog. As a contrarian, I believe that all signs point to gold going up--perhaps even violently--over the next 3-6 months. Gold is getting no love right now from anybody. Rydex money flow shows that investors have been moving massive amounts of money away from gold (and into utilities, which plummeted Wednesday and Thursday). The percentage of Rydex money in gold is around 10%. The last time it was this low it was equal to the low in mid-December 2005 when gold was under $500. Sentimentrader and Minyanville have some great recent articles about this. Also, Mark Hulbert's gold newsletter sentiment index shows that the average newsletter is recommending shorting gold. All the while gold remains in a solid long-term uptrend. And this doesn't even take into account possible catalysts from rising inflation, Iran, etc.

Anonymous said...

Great! How about your thoughts on gold stocks (XAU/HUI/GDX).

pleadership said...

The CEF is a good way to short gold and silver.

Anonymous said...

have you lost your mind. You are comparing s&p to gold and silver that is like comparing apples to oranges. And those charts look nothing alike.