Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Guesstimates on May 30, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: The 152.30 level is still resistance above the market in the Spiders while 1523 is resistance in the futures. I still think the Spiders will drop to 150.00 and the futures to 1500 before a rally into the 155-157 range can start.

QQQQ: I am raising my downside target for the Q’s from 45.00 to 45.70. The next upward swing should carry the market to 49.00.

TLT - June Bonds: I think that this market is headed for 107-16. Resistance above the market is at 109-24. TLT will follow the trend in the bonds and will probably drop to 85.00.

June 10 Year Notes
: The notes are headed for 104-20. Resistance above the market is at 107-08.

Euro-US Dollar: An extended decline is underway. Initial downside target is 133.50 but I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower. Meantime resistance is at 135.40.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 121.10. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – July Crude: I think XLE is making a top near 68 and that OIH made its top near 173. The next significant move in both will be downward. USO should bounce off of resistance near 50.60 and then drop to 45 or lower. July crude has completed a rally phase and is now headed down to 55.00 and eventually lower than that.

GLD - June Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. June gold should hold resistance at 696 and drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Next upside target is 503 while support is at 478.


Robert said...


Would you be willing to do an updated hourly graph for the S&P after the close today or sometime later this week?

Your last graph (that included the two down legs to get us to 1500) looks like it may be playing out just as you predicted.

Robert said...


it looks like we may have a (short) reprieve before the CSI 300 hits 4140 and we do enter the realm of possibility for a Chinese correction.

I completely agree with your prediction that the Chinese bubble has a lot of room to grow before popping.

The simple fact that everyone is convinced that it is a bubble suggests that we are not even close to popping. Also, a short, sharp correction at some point this year will dull the speculative frenzy for a few months and that will provide the necessary time to consolidate for the moonshot to 20K.

As a side note, I loved your prediction for CSI 20K in your post. I have made similar comments on other blogs and you would have thought that the moderators and other commenters believed that I should be fitted for a straightjacket.

Finally, great point about the Nikkei and the run from 6K to 39K